Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Profile: Daric Barton, 1B, Oakland Athletics
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
First baseman Daric Barton has been a pleasant story for the overachieving Oakland A’s this season. He’s walked eight times to just one strikeout and driven in seven runs in seven games. But in fantasy, does Barton’s extreme lack of power at the game’s most powerful position but negate his positives?
Free Agent Profile: Daric Barton, 1B, Oakland Athletics
Status: Reaching base, driving in runs as A’s No. 2 hitter.
Basics: .381 AVG, 0 HRs, 7 RBIs, 5 runs in 7 games.
Key Stats: Has 8 BBs (T-3rd in MLB) to just 1 K.
What to Watch For: Any power whatsoever; has 16 HRs in 219 career games.
Other Notes: Is just 24 years old, so improvements to his game aren’t out of the question … currently, is just an OBP machine with virtually no power and a .253 career average … can be used as a UTIL player, but with no HRs, shouldn’t be considered as a starting at 1B or 1B/3B … run-scoring and RBI potential will define his fantasy value.
Verdict: An end-of-the-bench type option; still has promise, but little value until he shows a roto strength.
Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Profile: Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Detroit Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson is holding his own in the early part of the 2010 season. He’s still got questions to answer when it comes to making contact and flashing some roto skills, but his opening week should be considered a success. Where does the rookie go from here?
Free Agent Profile: Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers
Status: Off to a solid start in debut as Tigers’ leadoff hitter.
Basics: .296 AVG, 0 HRs, 3 RBIs, 5 runs, 2 SBs in 6 games.
Key Stats: Has 2 SBs in his last 3 games.
What to Watch For: Contact and discipline; is tied for the MLB lead with 9 Ks.
Other Notes: Is overwhelmed as a rookie with at least one strikeout in all 6 Tigers’ games … question is, how does he adjust as his scouting report gets around baseball? … stolen bases are encouraging because the rest of his fantasy game looks very vanilla … has 4 XBHs (3 2Bs, 1 3B) and a solid .848 OPS in the early going.
Verdict: Wait and see; competition for his services will heat up as he steals more bases.
Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Profile: Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We like Cincinnati Reds outfielder Drew Stubbs for his speed and dynamic skill set, but we also see him as having the potential to be maddeningly inconsistent. There’s more to come on the stolen base front, but can he pump the brakes on his tendencies to strike out and put up damaging 0-fers?
Free Agent Profile: Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Status: Cementing himself as Reds’ starting CF and leadoff hitter.
Basics: .250 AVG, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 5 runs, 2 SBs in 6 games.
Key Stats: Has 0 BBs and 6 Ks in his last 2 games.
What to Watch For: Contact and consistency; is prone to Ks, poor AVG.
Other Notes: Reputation precedes him as a dynamic, but volatile player … has a difficult time making contact, but has excellent speed and the potential to hit 10+ HRs … already has one clutch hit to his credit, leading the Reds to a 5-4 win over the Cubs on April 9 with an eighth-inning grand slam.
Verdict: Add for his speed in NL-only and deep mixed leagues, but dig in for some ups and downs.
Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Profile: Jeff Francoeur, OF, New York Mets
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
New York Mets outfielder Jeff Francoeur fell out of favor in Atlanta and was shipped to New York last season. Since then, he’s been a .326 hitter, including this season when he is hitting .476 and reaching base at an unprecedented clip. Is his production a short-term boom or the sign of a once-hyped prospect finally turning the corner?
Free Agent Profile: Jeff Francoeur, OF, New York Mets
Status: Tearing the cover off the ball and showing improved patience.
Basics: .476 AVG, 2 HRs, 6 RBIs, 4 runs in 6 games.
Key Stats: Has 4 BBs to just 2 Ks, compared to 142 BBs to 524 Ks in his career.
What to Watch For: Power and RBIs - his bread and butter as a fantasy player.
Other Notes: Has been a different player since being traded to New York last season … has a .326 average, 12 HRs and 47 RBIs in 81 games with the Mets … in the early going, is walking at a higher rate, but seeing the fewest pitches per at-bat (3.1) in his career … over the winter, predicted he would hit 27 HRs this season.
Verdict: Worth an add in all formats; change of scenery just may have revived his career.
Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Profile: Alex Gonzalez, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
What’s in the water in Toronto? Veteran shortstop Marco Scutaro burst onto the fantasy scene last season, now Gonzalez is doing the same in the early part of 2010. Can he sustain his hot start like Scutaro did? We’ll take a deeper look.
Free Agent Profile: Alex Gonzalez, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
Status: Tied for the Major League lead with 7 XBHs.
Basics: .346 AVG, 4 HRs, 4 RBIs, 1 SB in 6 games.
Key Stats: Has 4 HRs; all other Major League shortstops have combined for just 10.
What to Watch For: Sustainability, of course; career years don’t often happen at age 33.
Other Notes: Is well beyond expectations now, namely in power but in batting average as well … is a .248 career hitter, but does have some solid power seasons to his credit … hit 23 HRs and drove in 79 runs with the Marlins in ‘04 … plate discipline, or lack there of, makes anything better than a .250 average look unrealistic.
Verdict: Ride the hot streak in AL-only leagues; know that 20-plus HRs is achievable, but with a poor AVG.
Milwaukee Brewers’ outfielder Carlos Gomez is on shaky ground after falling into sudden slump
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
The secret is out on Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported
after Go-Go’s 4-for-5 effort on Opening Day. This would be the season of change for the ever-dynamic, constantly-struggling young outfielder. Then, reality set in, a scenario that fantasy owners have grown quite accustomed to.
Gomez dangled his promise and tantalized owners, but came crashing back down to Earth. He’s gone 1-for-16 in the four games since his Opening Day effort and has continued his well-documented struggles reaching base. No walks, four strikeouts in five games.
The Opening Day performance may have bought Gomez time to work through his struggles, but his leash is getting shorter by the day. First, he could, and should, be bumped from the all-valuable No. 2 spot in the Brewers’ lineup. Next, if his problems continue, Gomez could be platooned with Jody Gerut, Corey Hart or Jim Edmonds in center field; the kiss of death for would-be fantasy contributors.
Gomez brings energy, speed and outstanding defense to center field, but eventually, the kid has to produce at the plate. Since he’s got virtually no clue how to work a count, he’d better get a grasp on how to keep the ball on the ground and use his speed to let out singles. Only then will Gomez remain a big-league regular and a viable starter in fantasy baseball.
Placido Polanco off to a promising start in his return to the Philadelphia Phillies
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
The marriage between Placido Polanco and the Philadelphia Phillies couldn’t have gotten off to a better start.
Polanco, 34, ranks second in the National League with 8 RBIs, including a 6-RBI outburst in Philadelphia’s Opening Day over the Washington Nationals. An ideal fit for the powerful, yet unpredictable and lefty-laden Phillies lineup, Polanco has all the opportunities for a career season in 2010.
Polanco can play hit-and-run baseball with Jimmy Rollins ahead of him in the lineup, and he can square up numerous fastballs that come with Chase Utley in the on-deck circle. He’s also more likely to steal bases against pitchers who can ill afford to take their attention away from Utley, Ryan Howard and company, and should be a lock for his second career season with 100-plus runs.
Polanco has a .304 career average and 391 career strikeouts to 314 career walks. He’s never struck out 50 times in a single season, which means the ball is constantly in play and his .300 average is weighted over an obscenely high number of at-bats.
And let’s not forget Polanco’s return to the City of Brotherly Love, site of his two highest single-season home run totals.
In 2004, Polanco hit .298 with 17 home runs and 55 RBIs in just 126 games. That was before the opening of Citizens Bank Park, one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in baseball. It’s the perfect recipe for spikes in power, contact, run-scoring and base-stealing, even as Polanco approaches the twilight of his career.
The early results are encouraging, but the stats at seasons’ end might be even more impressive.
Oops! St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus is far better than expected
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus is manager Tony LaRussa’s kind of guy. A gritty gamer who plays well beyond his years (23), Rasmus is also precisely the type of player who thrives in LaRussa’s regime. In fantasy, he’s the type of player fantasy owners are kicking themselves for putting too much into his ‘09 stats and ignoring on draft day.
We’ve all been there. We’ve all seen talents we can’t fully trust, so we don’t believe a big year is coming until we see it. The problem is, we’re almost always going to be a year too late. Count Rasmus as the next big example.
Rasmus is flashing the all-around ability that made him Baseball America’s No. 3 prospect in baseball prior to last season. In 417 minor league games, Rasmus hit 64 home runs and stole 74 bases, but had enough problems with injuries and inconsistencies to lack the makings of a true slam dunk in fantasy.
So, when last season came and went and Rasmus finished with a lackluster .251 average, 16 home runs and 52 RBIs, he took those doubts a step further.
In the early part of the 2010 season, Rasmus has been one of the game’s best all-around hitters. He’s hit two homers, stolen a base and scored six runs in five games, but most impressively, he’s tied for the Major League lead with 8 walks, compared to 5 strikeouts. And though it doesn’t show up in a box score, Rasmus is also flashing some serious leather in center field.
Rasmus is making an impact in all phases of the game, and he’s doing so for the low, low price of a 22nd round draft choice in standard mixed leagues.
While contact could still be an issue, Rasmus remains a good bet for a .275 average, 20 home runs, 80 RBIs, 80 runs and 15-20 stolen bases. We’re starting to see him blossom now, so it’s time to believe we all made a mistake on draft day.
Boston Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett has a case of ‘home run-itis’
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
For fantasy owners with a stake in Boston Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett, home runs have been the source of steady frustration. Long balls have been partially responsible for spikes in production from season to season, and they have played a large part in his shorter, more implosive outings. In his first start of 2010, home runs by Jorge Posada and Curtis Granderson helped derail a disastrous outing and send Beckett to the showers early.
As a member of the Florida Marlins, Beckett allowed 0.8 home runs per 9 innings and had a sub-4.00 ERA in four of his five seasons. Since his 2006 trade to Boston, that rate has swelled to 1.1 homers per 9 in four seasons. Certainly, there are external factors involved — the gauntlet of offenses in the AL East, Fenway Park, his transition to the American League — but some of that responsibility is on Beckett.
When he’s not going right, Beckett can miss up in the strike zone and catch the fat part of the plate on too many occasions. Posada’s line drive homer down the right field line tonight didn’t qualify, but Granderson’s long homer to the deepest part of Fenway Park did. Even average Major League hitters can put a charge into belt-high 95 mile per hour fastballs.
To his credit, Beckett has minimized the damage from home runs by posting big strikeout totals and a superb WHIP. And it’s those very contributions that make Beckett a better-than-average fantasy starter and a consistent winner. Owners may still be holding out for more, but with a chronic home run problem, Beckett’s days of Cy Young contention appear to be behind him.
Optimism abounds for Mets’ shortstop Jose Reyes, but risks remain the same
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Back and forth New York Mets’ shortstop Jose Reyes went, going from a mysterious absence from training to optimism that he would be in the Mets’ lineup on Opening Day to, eventually, landing on the disabled list as expected. Still, he returned to the field in March, showed some signs of life and made a legitimate run at an Opening Day start, all of which are encouraging signs for his 2010 production.
A thyroid condition kept Reyes in New York while his teammates worked in Port St. Lucie, and by the time he was cleared to return to action, he had fallen too far out of baseball shape. Reyes is eligible to come off the DL on April 10 and, even if his return is delayed, he’ll be back in plenty of time to make fantasy stardom a possibility again.
There are some variables throughout the season, like how durable his repaired hamstring is and what kind of added rest, if any, his thyroid condition requires, but Reyes at least has a mathematical shot at playing 140-plus games.
The odds are against Reyes as he aims for a return to form that made him one of fantasy’s most dynamic players from 2005-08. Two significant changes are working against him. First, he had surgery to repair a torn hamstring tendon in his right leg, which puts his elite stolen base total into some doubt. And second, the Mets opened Citi Field last season and proceeded to rank dead last in baseball with 95 home runs.
Owners should be a little more guarded in their power and speed projection, but Reyes remains a threat for 10 home runs and 50 stolen bases. That line is valuable in its own right, but especially at a shortstop position heavy on question marks and short on stud producers.
The ride could be a bumpy one filled with consistent “day-to-day” annoyances. Or, it could be a pleasant surprise that yields one of baseball’s best stolen base totals. Hopefully, given all the spring trials and tribulations, fantasy owners have put themselves in good position with a contingency plan in the middle infield.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Boston Red Sox
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Boston Red Sox
Overview: No matter where Red Sox manager Terry Francona puts him, Youkilis still hits and produces … can play first or third base, but is penciled in as the Sox’ starting first baseman … is one of the most consistent hitters in the AL … is a fast starter who, for the first time in 2009, learned the art of pacing himself throughout the year … is a .332 lifetime hitter in April and May … has the added benefit of the Green Monster in Fenway, often pulling balls for homers or doubles high off the wall.
2009 numbers: .305 avg, 27 HRs, 94 RBIs, 99 runs, 7 SBs in 136 games.
Key splits and trends: Is an intense player who had become mentally drained late in seasons … reversed that trend in ‘09, posting a higher batting average in the second half (.314) for the first time in his career … again got off to a quick start last season, hitting .395 and .327 in April and May, respectively … was at his best against AL East opponents with a collective .379 average against them.
Strengths: Is a consistent .290-.300 hitter whose OBP always hovers around .400 … is protected throughout the lineup and has plenty of opportunities to hit with runners in scoring position … is versatile in fantasy with first and third base eligibility.
Weaknesses: Is a gritty player and a hot head, so can be prone to injury and suspension … lineup support isn’t what it once was, with Manny Ramirez in L.A. and David Ortiz now in the twilight of his career … is a jack of all trades in fantasy, but a master of none.
Bold prediction for 2010: Nothing bold about this one; another stable season, this time with a career-high .315 average and 30 HRs.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Overview: ”Doc” was involved in the headline deal of the winter, being shipped to Philadelphia in a three-way deal with the Blue Jays and Mariners … has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball and one of fantasy’s most steady contributors … has a 69-33 record and 29 complete games over the last four seasons … has posted back-to-back seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA and, with a move to the National League, is in line for a third straight … is a workhorse who posts a sparkling K-to-BB ratio and consistently ranks among MLB leaders in wins.
2009 numbers: 17-10, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 Ks in 239 IP.
Key splits and trends: Ended the 2009 season with back-to-back shutouts, including one in Boston …slumped in August (4.71 ERA), but bounced back with a 1.47 ERA and 4 complete games in September … logged 220 or more IP for the fourth straight season … groundball-to-flyball ratio worsened for a fourth straight season, which could be worth watching as he moves to Citizen’s Bank Park.
Strengths: One of league’s most dominant pitchers moves to NL … has a rubber arm, leading the AL in complete games five times and leading the majors the last three years … has a devastating curveball to supplement other pitches … has pinpoint control, which keeps his WHIP in check, and has steadling improved his strikeout rate.
Weaknesses: How will he respond to the pressures of pitching in Philadelphia? … moves to one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball … has logged a lot of innings over the past eight seasons and turns 33 years old on May 14.
Bold prediction for 2010: Halladay wins his second Cy Young while leading the NL in wins, ERA and WHIP. He’ll top 20 wins with double-digit complete games.
#1 Jayhawks beaten by Mid-Major Northern Iowa
Submitted by Fantasy Sports Counselor Blog
The Counselor is IN:
The Missouri Valley’s Northern Iowa finally broke their two decade old drought by moving past the first round in the Big Dance on Thursday. The reward for their hard work was to play the overall number 1 team in the Tournament on Saturday. They did not stand a chance to advance to the Sweet 16 against the Kansas Jayhawks or did they?
Northern Iowa came out and dominated most of the game with their top ranked defense. Kansas fought their way back into the game with a couple of minutes left. The juggernaut Jayhawks were pressing the Northern Iowa Panthers and were within striking distance to win the game and were only 1 point down. Then Ali Farokhmanesh hit a 3 pointer with 34 seconds left and around 30 seconds left on the shot clock to seal the victory. He took a shot that most coaches would be upset about but it paid off.
The unthinkable happen. None of the experts would even consider this possibility. In fact, ESPN radio was debating even if Kentucky had a chance against Kansas in the finals if Kentucky made it. I guess they missed the memo that the Panthers were going to show up.
The Counselor is OUT:
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Overview: Longtime contributor at third base after making his Major League debut as a 19-year-old in Pittsburgh … has dealt with injuries in his career with Chicago, including a left shoulder injury that limited him to 82 games last season … when healthy, is one of the game’s most consistent RBI guys … has six 100-RBI seasons and four with at least 30 HRs.
2009 numbers: .317 avg, 15 HRs, 65 RBIs, 46 runs, 2 SBs in 82 games
Key splits and trends: After a run of three straight 30-homer seasons, has fallen short of that mark in each of the last three … has fallen short of 140 games played in three of the last five campaigns … was as good as ever after coming off the disabled list in July … hit .310 with 11 HRs in the second half of the season.
Strengths: Is a prototypical run producer with 120-RBI upside … has good power and calls a hitter-friendly ballpark home … is also a rarity in that he can add a .300+ average to the 30 HR-100 RBI package.
Weaknesses: Is more prone to injury than your average third baseman … hard to rely on 150+ games, so it’s hard to pencil him in for .300-30-100 … home run total is iffy; hasn’t hit the 30-HR mark since ‘06.
Bold prediction for 2010: Power and injury trends continue; hits .300 with 21 HRs and 85 RBIs in 125 games.
Analyzing error in WR prediction methods
Submitted by Fantasy Football Views Blog
In our last post, we looked at some charts that told us how wide receivers perform based on the number of years that they have spent in the league. Today, we will use these data to come up with prediction methods, then measure and minimize the error with each prediction method. For the purpose of prediction, we will use 2007 and 2008 statistics to try to predict 2009 performance. The error is the difference between predicted and actual 2009 performance. We will be using the RMS error method outlined a few posts below for calculating error.
First of all, we limited ourselves to players that had at least 20 catches in each of 2007, 2008, and 2009. That gave us a list of 48 players to use in this analysis. A bigger data base going back more years might give us more players to analyze, but recent changes in rules, enforcement, and offensive philosophies may make that older data less relevant.
The most important thing to try to predict for a WR is catches. Turns out, this is also one of the most difficult. We first tried the very simple method of using the last two years stats in a weighted average to come up with a prediction for catches. It turns out that to create minimal error, we had to use 30% of 2007 catches and 70% of 2008 catches. In other words, if a player caught 50 passes last year and 40 passes the year before, the best prediction for next year would be 50 * 0.7 + 40 * 0.3 = 47 catches.
We then tried to see if we could use improvement per year of experience to predict how many catches a WR might make. There are two years worth of stats that can be used here. First, you can take 2008 stats and predict 2009 stats from his experience in 2009. Also, you can take 2007 stats, predict 2008 stats from his experience in 2008, then from that value predict 2009 stats from his experience in 2009. We used a weighted average of these two years stats to minimize error, and found that the minimal error was achieved when only 2008 stats were used and 2007 stats were completely ignored. This makes sense because the 2007 stats used the prediction model twice, which would have essentially squared any error associated with the model.
We tried combining these two methods (using stats only and using stats and improvement), and found that using stats only by itself gave minimal error. So the only time when using improvement by experience is helpful is for rookies that do not have 2 years’ worth of stats to predict with.
Next, we looked at how to predict yards per catch. Using only a weighted average of 2007 and 2008 stats, we found that error was minimized with a weight of 0.8 on the stats from 2 years ago and 0.2 on the stats from last year. This is a rather surprising result, that shows that yards per catch is actually pretty volatile and hard to predict. If we took a weighted average of this result and the average yards per catch for a player at this experience level, we find that the error is minimized with a weight of 0.4 on previous years’ stats, and 0.6 on players’ experience level. This shows us that how long a player has been in the league has slightly more to do with yards per catch than previous years stats. It uses enough of previous years’ stats to ensure that the speedsters will still have above-average yards per catch, but they will come down to the pack as they start to age.
Finally, we looked at predicting TDs per catch. Using a weighted average from 2007 and 2008, we find that error is minimized with a weight of 0.2 from 2 years ago and 0.8 from the last year. This tells us that TDs per catch are much more predictable than yards per catch, and players tend to follow any trend that they had established the previous year. Combining this with average players’ stats per yer of experience, we find that a perfectly balanced weight of 0.5 for the individual player’s stats and 0.5 for the average stats for the player’s experience level give us minimal error. So age does play a role in determining how many TDs a player is going to score, but not as much as a role as it does for yards per catch.
WR Stats with Experience
Submitted by Fantasy Football Views Blog
Using some of the methods outlined in previous posts, we took a look at WR trends over the past 3 seasons. First, we calculated the yards per catch for receivers based upon experience:
So there is a little up-and-down over the first 10 years, but it is pretty subtle (an 8% drop between years 6 and 10). Again, we see an actual increase after year 10, which I attribute to only the better receivers remaining on teams after 10 years in the league.
If we look at TDs as a percentage of receptions, we get:
So just as with running backs, it appears that wide receivers are able to get into the end zone much more often as a percentage of touches. For the rest of the career, players tend slightly upwards. The spike in year 10 is just an anomaly.
Now, let’s take a look at how wide receivers improve from year to year in terms of catches.
So here we see the development cycle of receivers. There is a 4-to-1 improvement from the rookie season to year 2, and a 1.7-to-1 improvement from year 2 to year 3. So a rookie that gets 10 catches could be expected to get 40 catches in year 2 and 68 in year 3. This pattern of improvement actually continues through year 7.
Next up: calculating the error.
Chicago White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin stands out in fantasy drafts
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Chicago White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin says he has just ‘general soreness’ in his left foot, according to the Chicago Tribune
. Quentin was slowed by plantar fasciitis in his left foot last season and, to his credit, managed to hit 21 home runs in just 99 games.
Quentin is an OPS machine and a legitimate 40-home run hitter when he’s healthy, but the fact is, health has never been a slam dunk for him. Even at the tail end of his breakout 2008 campaign, Quentin managed to smash a bat against his right wrist and land on the disabled list.
Heel, wrist, shoulder and foot injuries have been issues throughout his Major League career, and oh by the way, Quentin is a magnet for the baseball when he’s at the plate. He’s been hit by 54 pitches in 367 career games, including 15 times (7th most in baseball) in just 99 games last season. Add that to the list of injury risks.
But, as with any injury risk, there’s a corresponding ‘discount’ on his services on draft day. Take the fear of injuries out of the equation, and Quentin would be a fringe top-50 player. As it is, he’s lasting into the 11th and 12th rounds of standard fantasy drafts. His fantasy game, injuries or not, stands out in that territory.
You can count on one hand the number of players with 35-homer potential available after the first five rounds, so Quentin
certainly has value potential. At that stage of the draft, Quentin could miss 40 games, hit 30 home runs and STILL justify the draft choice. But, there’s room for so much more.
We don’t recommend reaching for Quentin, but taking him anywhere leading up to the 100th overall pick is well worth the gamble. Power comes at a hefty premium at all stages of the draft; taking a risk to obtain it late is a wise play.
Detroit Tigers’ outfielder Austin Jackson can play defense, but what else can he do?
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Detroit Tigers’ rookie center fielder Austin Jackson is on course to become a pretty good Major League Baseball player. We are starting to question, though, will he ever become a good “fantasy” baseball player? At this stage of his career, he’s more athlete than baseball player and more defender than offensive standout.
We liken the potential for his first season to a poor man’s version of Dexter Fowler in ‘09. Fowler had his moments, for sure, but never truly made an impact in fantasy. The difference between him and Jackson, though, is that Fowler runs better, has more power and should hit for a higher average.
A gloomy projection for Jackson? Sure. And considering that Jackson is likely to start in center field and hit leadoff for the Tigers, we may be too harsh. Scouring news headlines, especially the ones regarding young players, we look for glowing commentary from coaches and teammates. We didn’t exactly get that from Lynn Henning at The Detroit News
.
Tigers manager Jim Leyland likes where Jackson is as a defensive center fielder, he’s just not sure when, if ever, Jackson will develop as a hitter.
We have our doubts, too. And, we don’t expect Jackson to last as the team’s leadoff hitter. Does that mean Jackson is irrelevant in fantasy this season? Of course not. But, like Fowler, his handful of promising moments will be lost in a sea of inexperience and inconsistency.
Your semi-daily Jason Heyward update: Legend grows with mammoth home run
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Atlanta Braves rookie outfielder Jason Heyward can’t possibly be sent to the minors after his showing in spring training. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports today that the 20-year-old launched a Max Scherzer fastball at least 450 feet in the first inning of the Braves’ contest at the Tigers’ complex in Lakeland, Fla.
The most impressive Heyward blast of the spring was summed up best by Braves’ pitcher Tim Hudson, as told to the AJC. Heyward worked a full count after falling behind 0-2, then launched the payoff pitch well beyond the wall in right field.
“If he’d have just gotten a hit or a walk it would have been a great at-bat,” Hudson said. “And he goes and puts one in the trees out there. I mean, it just adds to the legend.”
In fantasy, yeah, it’s fun to get caught up in the Heyward legend. But, it’s important to note that each one of these fabled blasts inches Heyward closer to an everyday job in right field. It’s not just gossip or folk lore, these are real, meaningful moments that will help dictate Heyward’s role in 2010.
Heyward has won his teammates and coaches over and again, and now it’s just a matter of Braves’ management reaching the same kind of comfort level in their prized prospect.
Heyward is big, strong, patient, mature, advanced, polished and powerful for his age. As flattering as the adjectives are to describe Heyward, the comparisons are probably more flattering. The most recent is surefire Hall of Famer Ken Griffey, only Heyward could actually be a more complete hitter than Junior Griffey was at the same age.
The point is, with every new tall tale and every new beaming remark from a teammate or coach, Heyward further cements his place in the Braves’ lineup. At this stage, we would not only be shocked if Heyward DIDN’T make the team, but if he didn’t start and hit right in the middle of the Braves’ lineup.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Keeper Question: Justin Verlander or Jayson Werth?
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
In many fantasy baseball leagues, the deadline to make crucial keeper decisions like the one below is rapidly approaching. We wanted to answer Chris’ question on the site because a.) we want to roll out the red carpet for our first reader question in weeks, and b.) the thought process behind this keeper decision could certainly apply to others.
Take a look and feel free to contact us with any tricky roster decisions of your own.
Hello again,
I must say I find your site extremely informative, insightful and valuable! Having said that I’d love some advice on a trade I’ve been offer in a standard head to head yahoo keeper league..I am keeping the max# of 7, mostly offense, Wieters, Gonzo, Kinsler, Longoria, Holliday, Werth and also deciding between Hamels and Carpenter.. I have been offered Verlander for Werth.. I’m a little scared of his 2008 off year but know his potential is huge.. Any help would be great..thanks!
We think that, yes, Justin Verlander is trustworthy enough to repeat his 2009 success. The young fireballer did struggle during the ‘08 season, but he has three other campaigns with at least 17 wins under his belt. And besides that, few starters offer the type of reliability that Verlander does, in terms of reaching key benchmarks: 3.50 ERA, 200 innings, 200 strikeouts, 15 wins.
With that said, our move would still be to keep Werth over Verlander. Since starting pitchers are inherently more risky, then why not keep the more valuable, more sure thing in Werth and roll the dice with Hamels or Carpenter? We like Hamels over Carpenter in a keeper league, by the way. Focus on starting pitching early in the draft and identify a number of undervalued starters to monitor throughout.
If the draft ends and starting pitching is still a weakness, THEN take a look at dealing a hitter for a starting pitcher. Our best advice is to retain as much sheer value as you possibly can on your keeper list now and worry about roster balance and adjustments later.
Before shooting down the trade offer, however, consider one other option. How good is the next best position player on your roster? If he’s a worthy keeper, then using Werth to upgrade your pitching staff becomes a better option. In essence, that decision would come down to how big the dropoff is from Werth to another hitter vs. how big the upgrade is from Hamels to Verlander.
If there is any question or hesitation, err on the side of maximum roster value and choose Werth over Verlander.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
Overview: Lanky flamethrower bounced back from a dismal 2008 season to win 19 games and finish third in the AL Cy Young race last season … led Major League Baseball with 269 strikeouts and was tied for the MLB lead in wins … tossed more innings than any other pitcher in baseball and averaged an AL-best 10.1 Ks per 9.
2009 numbers: 19-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 269 Ks in 240 IP
Key splits and trends: Dominant in day games last year, going 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA … much better in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, where his 2.81 ERA was more than a point better than his road ERA (4.04) … stats were nearly identical before and after the All-Star break … take down ‘08 season out of the equation, and Verlander has averaged 18 wins per season.
Strengths: Has arguably the most electric fastball in the game, often reaching the high 90s and sometimes even touching 100 mph … no durability concerns, as he has tossed over 200 innings in each of the last four seasons … pitches deep into ballgames and threw three complete games in 2009.
Weaknesses: Was inconsistent down the stretch in the middle of the AL Central pennant race … year-to-year consistency as well, going 11-17 in 2008 and striking out 106 fewer batters … heavy workload in 2009 may limit Verlander’s strength and stamina down the stretch in 2010.
Bold prediction for 2010: Will be in the hunt for a Cy Young for a second straight year, this time registering his first 20-win season.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
Overview: Bounced back last year after a disappointing 2008 campaign … validated the comparisons to Hall of Famer Rod Carew by showing his dynamic ability to hit for both power and average … had 200 hits for the first time in his career and ranked fifth in the American League with 75 XBH … power numbers increased across the board last year.
2009 numbers: .320 avg, 25 HRs, 85 RBIs, 103 runs, 5 SBs in 161 games
Key splits and trends: Cano struggled in May and June with a .271 average combined, but led all second basemen with 94 hits and had a .336 average after the All-Star break … was consistent away from Yankees Stadium with a .338/.303 split.
Strengths: Is surrounded by all-world talent throughout the entire order … has power to all fields and drives the ball in the gaps … has missed a total of six games over the last three years … still hasn’t maxed out his potential.
Weaknesses: Still has little, if any, plate discipline … walked just 30 times last year … is often bounced around the lineup and, as a result, his production could fluctuate.
Bold prediction for 2010: For the fourth time in his short career, Cano will top .300 with 27 home runs and just under 100 RBIs.
Kansas City Royals’ third baseman Alex Gordon is catching the wrong kind of breaks
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Kansas City Royals third baseman is dangerously close to making the transition from sleeper to coma victim. As the Kansas City Star reports, a broken thumb is the latest obstacle for the seemingly star-crossed infielder. Gordon broke his right thumb sliding head-first into second base today, an injury that will sideline him for 3-4 weeks, according to the Star.
Gordon can’t catch a break, can he? A hip injury stunted his growth last season, and now a thumb injury threatens to derail his unofficial make-or-break 2010 season before it starts. Opening Day is in serious jeopardy is Gordon, not to mention the spring preparation time he’s missing while the rest of baseball moves on.
With all that in mind, it’s hard to like Gordon’s chances for a career year. He’ll start the season on the fantasy scrap heap and have to work his way onto a roster from there.
We’ve given Gordon the benefit of the doubt for his early struggles as a pro. Our justification? Gordon’s swing reminds us a lot of a young Justin Morneau, and Morneau was a late arrival in his career as well. It took three-plus seasons for Morneau to reach his massive potential, and he’s become a perennial MVP candidate since.
That time would be now for Gordon, though Morneau was considerably younger when he made the leap forward in 2006. Gordon enters the 2010 season as a 26-year-old with a .250 career average and a recent history of fluke injuries and bad luck. He needs a break to snap out of this funk, but a 30-homer season remains a [faint] possibility.
Baltimore Orioles’ prospect Josh Bell may be closer to fantasy relevance than we think
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Baltimore Orioles’ third baseman Miguel Tejada’s job may not be in jeopardy, but hot shot prospect Josh Bell is certainly making his case. He’s impressing in Orioles’ camp, but as the Baltimore Sun’s Peter Schmuck tells us, the plan is for Bell ‘to get more comfortable hitting Triple-A pitching this season.’
Bell is flying under the radar amongst prospects in fantasy, but he’s getting closer and closer to being Major League ready. A highly regarded prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ organization, he was shipped to Baltimore in the deadline deal for reliever George Sherrill last season.
Bell, 23, made his first appearance above the Single-A level in ‘09 and responded with a .295 average, 20 home runs and 76 RBIs in 127 games between Double-A clubs Chattanooga (Dodgers) and Bowie (Orioles). Perhaps more importantly, Bell hit for more power and showed better command of the strike zone, improving his walk rate (61 to 98 Ks) for the third straight season.
A successful stint with the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate in Norfolk is the only thing standing between Bell and a starting job in Baltimore in 2011. Who knows, as Schmuck points out, a hot start by Bell and some kind of setback — injury or otherwise — to Tejada, and that opportunity could come sooner. Keep an eye on his progress in the early part of 2010.
In other American League East news …
Starting pitcher Chris Tillman threw two scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates [Baltimore Sun]
Boston Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury is inheriting ’some of the most fabled real estate in team history’ with his move from center to left field. [Boston Globe]
Free agent acquisition John Lackey was sharp in his Red Sox debut. [Boston Globe]
New York Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain has his hands full in a competition with Phil Hughes for the fifth and final spot in the team’s starting rotation. [New York Daily News]
Curtis Granderson is still in contention for the No. 2 spot in the Yankees’ order. [New York Times]
Tampa Bay Rays’ rookie Wade Davis allowed two runs on a hit and three walks in 1 2/3 innings against the Red Sox today. [Tampa Bay Tribune]
Meanwhile, Rays’ prospect Jeremy Hellickson made a strong debut against the Yankees. [Tampa Bay Tribune]
Toronto Blue Jays’ pitcher Brandon Morrow is making his case to be the team’s Opening Day starter. [Toronto Star]
Fantasy owners aren’t giving Arizona Diamondbacks’ pitcher Edwin Jackson enough respect: NL West roundup
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Edwin Jackson has impressed catcher Miguel Montero early in spring training, according to the Arizona Republic.
Jackson, at least according to his new catcher, is no one-year wonder. He was traded to Detroit from Tampa Bay last season for little more than a bucket of baseballs (Matt Joyce) and went 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA, to the surprise of most.
The move to the National League this season — he was shipped to Arizona from Detroit in the three-way Curtis Granderson deal — should be an added benefit to his fantasy game as well. Doubts about his All-Star season in ‘09 are keeping Jackson on the board late into standard drafts. Far too late, in our opinion. Currently, he’s the 40th starter going off the board on MockDraftCentral.com.
As a 26-year-old former top prospect who has made drastic improvements in three straight seasons, that’s just not enough respect.
Lumping him in with unknowns Brett Anderson, Max Scherzer, David Price and Neftali Feliz is hard to justify. In an absolutely perfect scenario, those young, talents would put up the type of numbers that Jackson did a year ago. Jackson, though he’s being viewed as a candidate to regress, has a very good chance to take another step in the right direction.
He’s a classic thrower-turned-pitcher, who in Montero’s eyes, has developed a full arsenal of pitches. Statistically, the change in leagues also adds value to a pitcher who has improved his efficiency stats, walk rate, opponents’ batting average and ERA in each of the last three seasons.
“[Jackson is] going to make me look good,” Montero told the Arizona Republic. “He’s the type of pitcher who can make everybody look good.”
Drafting Jackson a few slots earlier than his average draft position — 18th round in standard mixed leagues — can make fantasy owners look pretty good, too.
In other National League West news …
D-backs outfielder Justin Upton, after signing a 6-year, $51.25 million contract, says ‘I want to be great.’ [Arizona Republic]
Colorado Rockies closer Huston Street is getting a late start to spring training because of a tight throwing shoulder. [Denver Post]
Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw is in line for an Opening Day start. [LA Daily News]
Kershaw got the opportunity to learn from Dodgers’ great Sandy Koufax on a plane ride this week. [LA Times]
San Diego Padres rookie outfielder Kyle Blanks is ‘leaner and keener’ having dropped 15 pounds. [San Diego Union-Tribune]
New acquisition Aubrey Huff will be the San Francisco Giants’ fourth different starting first baseman in the last five opening days. [San Francisco Chronicle]
