Detroit Tigers’ outfielder Austin Jackson can play defense, but what else can he do?
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Detroit Tigers’ rookie center fielder Austin Jackson is on course to become a pretty good Major League Baseball player. We are starting to question, though, will he ever become a good “fantasy” baseball player? At this stage of his career, he’s more athlete than baseball player and more defender than offensive standout.
We liken the potential for his first season to a poor man’s version of Dexter Fowler in ‘09. Fowler had his moments, for sure, but never truly made an impact in fantasy. The difference between him and Jackson, though, is that Fowler runs better, has more power and should hit for a higher average.
A gloomy projection for Jackson? Sure. And considering that Jackson is likely to start in center field and hit leadoff for the Tigers, we may be too harsh. Scouring news headlines, especially the ones regarding young players, we look for glowing commentary from coaches and teammates. We didn’t exactly get that from Lynn Henning at The Detroit News
.
Tigers manager Jim Leyland likes where Jackson is as a defensive center fielder, he’s just not sure when, if ever, Jackson will develop as a hitter.
We have our doubts, too. And, we don’t expect Jackson to last as the team’s leadoff hitter. Does that mean Jackson is irrelevant in fantasy this season? Of course not. But, like Fowler, his handful of promising moments will be lost in a sea of inexperience and inconsistency.
Your semi-daily Jason Heyward update: Legend grows with mammoth home run
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Atlanta Braves rookie outfielder Jason Heyward can’t possibly be sent to the minors after his showing in spring training. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports today that the 20-year-old launched a Max Scherzer fastball at least 450 feet in the first inning of the Braves’ contest at the Tigers’ complex in Lakeland, Fla.
The most impressive Heyward blast of the spring was summed up best by Braves’ pitcher Tim Hudson, as told to the AJC. Heyward worked a full count after falling behind 0-2, then launched the payoff pitch well beyond the wall in right field.
“If he’d have just gotten a hit or a walk it would have been a great at-bat,” Hudson said. “And he goes and puts one in the trees out there. I mean, it just adds to the legend.”
In fantasy, yeah, it’s fun to get caught up in the Heyward legend. But, it’s important to note that each one of these fabled blasts inches Heyward closer to an everyday job in right field. It’s not just gossip or folk lore, these are real, meaningful moments that will help dictate Heyward’s role in 2010.
Heyward has won his teammates and coaches over and again, and now it’s just a matter of Braves’ management reaching the same kind of comfort level in their prized prospect.
Heyward is big, strong, patient, mature, advanced, polished and powerful for his age. As flattering as the adjectives are to describe Heyward, the comparisons are probably more flattering. The most recent is surefire Hall of Famer Ken Griffey, only Heyward could actually be a more complete hitter than Junior Griffey was at the same age.
The point is, with every new tall tale and every new beaming remark from a teammate or coach, Heyward further cements his place in the Braves’ lineup. At this stage, we would not only be shocked if Heyward DIDN’T make the team, but if he didn’t start and hit right in the middle of the Braves’ lineup.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Keeper Question: Justin Verlander or Jayson Werth?
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
In many fantasy baseball leagues, the deadline to make crucial keeper decisions like the one below is rapidly approaching. We wanted to answer Chris’ question on the site because a.) we want to roll out the red carpet for our first reader question in weeks, and b.) the thought process behind this keeper decision could certainly apply to others.
Take a look and feel free to contact us with any tricky roster decisions of your own.
Hello again,
I must say I find your site extremely informative, insightful and valuable! Having said that I’d love some advice on a trade I’ve been offer in a standard head to head yahoo keeper league..I am keeping the max# of 7, mostly offense, Wieters, Gonzo, Kinsler, Longoria, Holliday, Werth and also deciding between Hamels and Carpenter.. I have been offered Verlander for Werth.. I’m a little scared of his 2008 off year but know his potential is huge.. Any help would be great..thanks!
We think that, yes, Justin Verlander is trustworthy enough to repeat his 2009 success. The young fireballer did struggle during the ‘08 season, but he has three other campaigns with at least 17 wins under his belt. And besides that, few starters offer the type of reliability that Verlander does, in terms of reaching key benchmarks: 3.50 ERA, 200 innings, 200 strikeouts, 15 wins.
With that said, our move would still be to keep Werth over Verlander. Since starting pitchers are inherently more risky, then why not keep the more valuable, more sure thing in Werth and roll the dice with Hamels or Carpenter? We like Hamels over Carpenter in a keeper league, by the way. Focus on starting pitching early in the draft and identify a number of undervalued starters to monitor throughout.
If the draft ends and starting pitching is still a weakness, THEN take a look at dealing a hitter for a starting pitcher. Our best advice is to retain as much sheer value as you possibly can on your keeper list now and worry about roster balance and adjustments later.
Before shooting down the trade offer, however, consider one other option. How good is the next best position player on your roster? If he’s a worthy keeper, then using Werth to upgrade your pitching staff becomes a better option. In essence, that decision would come down to how big the dropoff is from Werth to another hitter vs. how big the upgrade is from Hamels to Verlander.
If there is any question or hesitation, err on the side of maximum roster value and choose Werth over Verlander.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
Overview: Lanky flamethrower bounced back from a dismal 2008 season to win 19 games and finish third in the AL Cy Young race last season … led Major League Baseball with 269 strikeouts and was tied for the MLB lead in wins … tossed more innings than any other pitcher in baseball and averaged an AL-best 10.1 Ks per 9.
2009 numbers: 19-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 269 Ks in 240 IP
Key splits and trends: Dominant in day games last year, going 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA … much better in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, where his 2.81 ERA was more than a point better than his road ERA (4.04) … stats were nearly identical before and after the All-Star break … take down ‘08 season out of the equation, and Verlander has averaged 18 wins per season.
Strengths: Has arguably the most electric fastball in the game, often reaching the high 90s and sometimes even touching 100 mph … no durability concerns, as he has tossed over 200 innings in each of the last four seasons … pitches deep into ballgames and threw three complete games in 2009.
Weaknesses: Was inconsistent down the stretch in the middle of the AL Central pennant race … year-to-year consistency as well, going 11-17 in 2008 and striking out 106 fewer batters … heavy workload in 2009 may limit Verlander’s strength and stamina down the stretch in 2010.
Bold prediction for 2010: Will be in the hunt for a Cy Young for a second straight year, this time registering his first 20-win season.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
Overview: Bounced back last year after a disappointing 2008 campaign … validated the comparisons to Hall of Famer Rod Carew by showing his dynamic ability to hit for both power and average … had 200 hits for the first time in his career and ranked fifth in the American League with 75 XBH … power numbers increased across the board last year.
2009 numbers: .320 avg, 25 HRs, 85 RBIs, 103 runs, 5 SBs in 161 games
Key splits and trends: Cano struggled in May and June with a .271 average combined, but led all second basemen with 94 hits and had a .336 average after the All-Star break … was consistent away from Yankees Stadium with a .338/.303 split.
Strengths: Is surrounded by all-world talent throughout the entire order … has power to all fields and drives the ball in the gaps … has missed a total of six games over the last three years … still hasn’t maxed out his potential.
Weaknesses: Still has little, if any, plate discipline … walked just 30 times last year … is often bounced around the lineup and, as a result, his production could fluctuate.
Bold prediction for 2010: For the fourth time in his short career, Cano will top .300 with 27 home runs and just under 100 RBIs.
Kansas City Royals’ third baseman Alex Gordon is catching the wrong kind of breaks
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Kansas City Royals third baseman is dangerously close to making the transition from sleeper to coma victim. As the Kansas City Star reports, a broken thumb is the latest obstacle for the seemingly star-crossed infielder. Gordon broke his right thumb sliding head-first into second base today, an injury that will sideline him for 3-4 weeks, according to the Star.
Gordon can’t catch a break, can he? A hip injury stunted his growth last season, and now a thumb injury threatens to derail his unofficial make-or-break 2010 season before it starts. Opening Day is in serious jeopardy is Gordon, not to mention the spring preparation time he’s missing while the rest of baseball moves on.
With all that in mind, it’s hard to like Gordon’s chances for a career year. He’ll start the season on the fantasy scrap heap and have to work his way onto a roster from there.
We’ve given Gordon the benefit of the doubt for his early struggles as a pro. Our justification? Gordon’s swing reminds us a lot of a young Justin Morneau, and Morneau was a late arrival in his career as well. It took three-plus seasons for Morneau to reach his massive potential, and he’s become a perennial MVP candidate since.
That time would be now for Gordon, though Morneau was considerably younger when he made the leap forward in 2006. Gordon enters the 2010 season as a 26-year-old with a .250 career average and a recent history of fluke injuries and bad luck. He needs a break to snap out of this funk, but a 30-homer season remains a [faint] possibility.
Baltimore Orioles’ prospect Josh Bell may be closer to fantasy relevance than we think
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Baltimore Orioles’ third baseman Miguel Tejada’s job may not be in jeopardy, but hot shot prospect Josh Bell is certainly making his case. He’s impressing in Orioles’ camp, but as the Baltimore Sun’s Peter Schmuck tells us, the plan is for Bell ‘to get more comfortable hitting Triple-A pitching this season.’
Bell is flying under the radar amongst prospects in fantasy, but he’s getting closer and closer to being Major League ready. A highly regarded prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ organization, he was shipped to Baltimore in the deadline deal for reliever George Sherrill last season.
Bell, 23, made his first appearance above the Single-A level in ‘09 and responded with a .295 average, 20 home runs and 76 RBIs in 127 games between Double-A clubs Chattanooga (Dodgers) and Bowie (Orioles). Perhaps more importantly, Bell hit for more power and showed better command of the strike zone, improving his walk rate (61 to 98 Ks) for the third straight season.
A successful stint with the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate in Norfolk is the only thing standing between Bell and a starting job in Baltimore in 2011. Who knows, as Schmuck points out, a hot start by Bell and some kind of setback — injury or otherwise — to Tejada, and that opportunity could come sooner. Keep an eye on his progress in the early part of 2010.
In other American League East news …
Starting pitcher Chris Tillman threw two scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates [Baltimore Sun]
Boston Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury is inheriting ’some of the most fabled real estate in team history’ with his move from center to left field. [Boston Globe]
Free agent acquisition John Lackey was sharp in his Red Sox debut. [Boston Globe]
New York Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain has his hands full in a competition with Phil Hughes for the fifth and final spot in the team’s starting rotation. [New York Daily News]
Curtis Granderson is still in contention for the No. 2 spot in the Yankees’ order. [New York Times]
Tampa Bay Rays’ rookie Wade Davis allowed two runs on a hit and three walks in 1 2/3 innings against the Red Sox today. [Tampa Bay Tribune]
Meanwhile, Rays’ prospect Jeremy Hellickson made a strong debut against the Yankees. [Tampa Bay Tribune]
Toronto Blue Jays’ pitcher Brandon Morrow is making his case to be the team’s Opening Day starter. [Toronto Star]
Fantasy owners aren’t giving Arizona Diamondbacks’ pitcher Edwin Jackson enough respect: NL West roundup
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Edwin Jackson has impressed catcher Miguel Montero early in spring training, according to the Arizona Republic.
Jackson, at least according to his new catcher, is no one-year wonder. He was traded to Detroit from Tampa Bay last season for little more than a bucket of baseballs (Matt Joyce) and went 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA, to the surprise of most.
The move to the National League this season — he was shipped to Arizona from Detroit in the three-way Curtis Granderson deal — should be an added benefit to his fantasy game as well. Doubts about his All-Star season in ‘09 are keeping Jackson on the board late into standard drafts. Far too late, in our opinion. Currently, he’s the 40th starter going off the board on MockDraftCentral.com.
As a 26-year-old former top prospect who has made drastic improvements in three straight seasons, that’s just not enough respect.
Lumping him in with unknowns Brett Anderson, Max Scherzer, David Price and Neftali Feliz is hard to justify. In an absolutely perfect scenario, those young, talents would put up the type of numbers that Jackson did a year ago. Jackson, though he’s being viewed as a candidate to regress, has a very good chance to take another step in the right direction.
He’s a classic thrower-turned-pitcher, who in Montero’s eyes, has developed a full arsenal of pitches. Statistically, the change in leagues also adds value to a pitcher who has improved his efficiency stats, walk rate, opponents’ batting average and ERA in each of the last three seasons.
“[Jackson is] going to make me look good,” Montero told the Arizona Republic. “He’s the type of pitcher who can make everybody look good.”
Drafting Jackson a few slots earlier than his average draft position — 18th round in standard mixed leagues — can make fantasy owners look pretty good, too.
In other National League West news …
D-backs outfielder Justin Upton, after signing a 6-year, $51.25 million contract, says ‘I want to be great.’ [Arizona Republic]
Colorado Rockies closer Huston Street is getting a late start to spring training because of a tight throwing shoulder. [Denver Post]
Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw is in line for an Opening Day start. [LA Daily News]
Kershaw got the opportunity to learn from Dodgers’ great Sandy Koufax on a plane ride this week. [LA Times]
San Diego Padres rookie outfielder Kyle Blanks is ‘leaner and keener’ having dropped 15 pounds. [San Diego Union-Tribune]
New acquisition Aubrey Huff will be the San Francisco Giants’ fourth different starting first baseman in the last five opening days. [San Francisco Chronicle]
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins
Overview: Season ended in mid-September after being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his back … injury caused his numbers to take a serious dip in the second half of the season … still managed to reach the 30-HR and 100-RBI plateaus, however … is expected to be fully recovered in 2010, but back problems tend to linger.
2009 numbers: .274 avg, 30 HRs, 100 RBIs, 85 runs in 135 games.
Key splits and trends: Hit .311 with 21 HRs and 70 RBIs before the All-Star break … Morneau’s average dipped more than .100 points in the second half, hitting just .201 with 9 HRs … was hitting just .077 in September before being shut down … got off to a hot start in 2009, though, hitting .342 with 14 HRs and 47 RBIs.
Strengths: Before this season, was as durable as any first baseman in the majors … AL MVP candidate year-in and year-out … capable of 30 HRs and 120 RBIs in any given year … considerably low amount of strikeouts for a power hitter.
Weaknesses: Morneau is coming off a debilitating back injury that forced his season to end early and seriously limited his production … has a career high of just 76 walks … hasn’t swiped a bag since 2007 … move to an outdoor stadium could cause a slow start to the season.
Bold prediction for 2010: Gets off to a slow start, but rebounds to finish with a .290 avg., 28 HRs and 100 RBIs.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Adam Lind, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Adam Lind, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Overview: Was brilliant last season, his first as a full-time starter in Toronto … had the best season of his career and secured a spot as a long-time fixture in the Toronto lineup … finished off 2009 on an offensive tear and had the fifth-most doubles in the AL.
2009 numbers: .305 avg, 35 HRs, 114 RBIs, 93 runs in 151 games
Key splits and trends: Hit .316 with 13 HRs and 44 RBIs in Aug. and Sept. combined … had 8 doubles or more in every month from April to August … hit .360 in June.
Strengths: Has power to all fields, as evidenced by his 35 HRs and 46 doubles, each ranking fifth in the AL last season … is young (turns 27 in July) and has the potential to improve on his career year in 2009.
Weaknesses: Had nearly twice as many strikeouts (110) as walks (58) last season … stole just one base in 2009 and has four in his career … needs to prove last season wasn’t a fluke.
Bold prediction for 2010: Lind falls short of career ‘09 numbers, but finishes with a .280 average and 30 HRs.
Fantasy Baseball Lunch Links: Risks and rewards at the shortstop position
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
After Hanley Ramirez, there are many risks at the shortstop position, writes Jon Lewin for The Faster Times.
Yes and no, in our opinion. While there are risks of the unknown — Rollins’ downward statistical trends, Jeter’s age, Bartlett’s lack of track record, etc. — there are also opportunities to pick and choose from a deep crop of shortstops.
Lewin says the pool of infielders gets risky; we say there are plenty of opportunities to both find value and whiff horribly on picks. “Elite” is a fluid concept because, yes, there are small risks associated with virtually every player in the pool. Bright side is, there are also small “rewards” to be found up and down the position rankings.
From bright, young talents Elvis Andrus, Alcides Escobar and Everth Cabrera to solid veteran types Marco Scutaro and Miguel Tejada, virtually every kind of risk/reward combination is there for the taking.
Along the same lines, New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes is part of ESPN.com injury expert Stephania Bell’s doomsday scenario, writes Ray Guilfoyle at Fake Teams.
Coming off surgery to repair a torn hamstring tendon, Reyes’ primary strength, his speed, could be in jeopardy this season. The cost to acquire services is high because of such volatility. He could end up on the DL by May or in contention for fantasy MVP honors at season’s end. We prefer to pass on Reyes, but gamblers should be intrigued by his top-five potential in the third and fourth rounds of standard drafts.
Roto Authority’s Tim Dierkes likes Reyes over Rollins and Troy Tulowitzki.
Lester’s Legends wonders, is Cabrera a No. 1 fantasy shortstop?
Based on potential alone, we say, sure, why not? Cabrera was solid in his Major League debut last season and had 73 steals during his 2008 season at Single-A Asheville. There are enough moving parts, though — Cabrera being a new name to fantasy owners, Padres lineup and ballpark — to ensure that Cabrera lasts longer on draft boards than he should.
Andrus checks in at No. 8 on Baseball Docs’ preseason shortstop rankings, compared to No. 12 overall in MockDraftCentral.com’s average draft results.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals
Overview: The No. 4 pick overall in the 2005 amateur draft, Zimmerman broke out in 2009 with his best season as a pro … had career-highs in every major offensive category … proved he can be the cornerstone, not only of the Nationals’ franchise but a fantasy club as well.
2009 numbers: .292 avg, 33 HRs, 106 RBIs, 110 runs, 2 SBs in 157 games
Key splits and trends: Was dominant after the All-Star break last year, hitting .297 with 19 HRs, 54 RBIS and an OPS of .969 in just 72 games … not a huge difference in average when facing a left- or right-handed pitcher, but nearly all of his power numbers came against righties … tantalized fantasy owners with 11 SBs as a rookie in ‘06, but has just 7 stolen bases in the last 3 seasons combined.
Strengths: Will be only 25 years old this year and is already one of the most feared hitters in the NL … has shown improved plate discipline with each season … has played in 157 games or more in three of four full MLB seasons … also benefits from move away from giant RFK Stadium and into hitter-friendly Nationals Park.
Weaknesses: Despite improved plate discipline, still does not draw the amount of walks an owner would like to see from a power hitter … has become an otherwise complete hitter, but would like a better contribution in SBs.
Bold prediction for 2010: Zimmerman breaks the .300 mark while topping 100 RBIs and falling just short of 40 HRs.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves
Overview: Since his first full season in 2006, McCann has become one of the two or three best offensive catchers in the game … is fantasy’s undisputed No. 2 catcher this season behind only Minnesota’s Joe Mauer and Boston’s Victor Martinez … has posted consistent power numbers over career and has 90+ RBIs in three of four full seasons.
2009 numbers: .281 avg, 21 HRs, 94 RBIs, 63 runs in 138 games
Key splits and trends: Hits over .300 against righties but just .225 vs. left-handed pitchers … nearly all of power numbers coming against right-handers … struggled down the stretch, batting .228 in August and .270 combined in September and October.
Strengths: One of the most productive hitters in the majors despite playing at a non-offensive position … more consistent power numbers than Mauer with 3 years of 20+ HRs and 90+ RBIs … records a high number of XBH each season and, surprisingly, has 9 combined stolen bases the last 2 seasons.
Weaknesses: Like most catchers, McCann brings virtually nothing once he reaches base, as evidenced by his inability to score runs and his career 12 SBs … Lacks plate discipline, walking just 49 times in 2009 … is a big man at a position that grinds on players’ bodies.
Bold prediction for 2010: Will reach the 20-HR plateau once again, but will post 100 RBIs for the first time in his career.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Adam Dunn, 1B, Washington Nationals
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Adam Dunn, 1B, Washington Nationals
Overview: The Big Donkey is one of the most consistent players in the Major Leagues in terms of seasonal outputs … in fantasy, that’s not always a good thing … consistently low batting average and sky-high strikeout totals hurt his draft stock … however, you can take big power numbers and RBI totals to the bank; Dunn has averaged 41 HRs and 101 RBIs over the last 6 seasons.
2009 numbers: .267 avg., 38 HRs, 105 RBIs, 81 runs, 0 SBs in 159 games.
Key splits and trends: Consistent power whether home or away, hitting 19 home runs each … production tailed off down the stretch, bottoming out with only 3 HRs and a .212 BA in September … his .267 average last season was a career-high, though he failed to reach the 40-HR mark for the first time since 2003 … has average troubles, in part, because he is patient and works two-strike counts.
Strengths: Dunn’s bread and butter will always be 40ish home runs and 100+ RBI’s … even on a bad team like the Nationals, he still produces in those categories … he’s also an adept run scorer for a man his size and an OBP machine.
Weaknesses: Dunn’s batting average will always hurt a fantasy lineup … speed is non-existent, don’t bank on any steals.
Bold prediction for 2010: Much of the same from Dunn; pencil him in for 40 HRs and 100 RBIs.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Cliff Lee, SP, Seattle Mariners
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Cliff Lee, SP, Seattle Mariners
Overview: As the reigning Cy Young winner last season, numbers predictably slid a little … poor run support in Cleveland killed his win total, then joined the Philadelphia Phillies via trade in August … got off to a brilliant start with the Phils, helping lead them to a World Series berth … was surprisingly traded to the Mariners in the off-season in the three-way deal that landed Philly ace Roy Halladay.
2009 numbers: 14-13, 3.22 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 181 Ks in 231.2 IP.
Key splits and trends: In his first 5 starts with the Phillies, his stat line read: 5-0, 0.68 ERA and 39 Ks in 40 innings … was solid in the first half with Cleveland, posting a 3.14 ERA, but Indians’ struggles contributed to a 7-9 record … reaffirmed his status as one of the game’s best pitchers with a dominant postseason, in which he went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in 5 starts.
Strengths: Keeping hitters off balance leads to solid K per 9 numbers as well as a low ERA … pitching in Seattle’s spacious ballpark could further strengthen those numbers … pinpoint control, especially with his fastball, helps keep his BB rate and WHIP low, despite mediocre .263 career BAA.
Weaknesses: Tends to be a bit streaky, as after the 5-0 start with the Phillies went 3-4 with a 6.13 ERA to finish the season … another change of scenery isn’t a positive, so he and the Mariners need to start the season on the right note.
Bold prediction for 2010: Same ratio and K count as in years past, but less run support will result in a max of 16 wins.
2010 Fantasy Baseball All-Sleeper Team: The infield
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Can’t get enough sleepers? Yeah, neither can we. And from our experience, the more names you can see, the better job you can do evaluating all the choices on draft day. We’ve already done a little sleeper roundtable, but our next move is to roll out the 2010 All-Sleeper Team, which consists of players we feel will greatly out-perform their current draft stock.
That’s the essence of a sleeper anyway, right? It’s not just about using a valuable draft choice on some player no other manager has ever heard of. It’s about getting the most bang for your buck, from the start of your draft all the way until the end.
For this exercise, we’re starting with the five infield positions, including catcher, then adding separate posts for outfielders, starting pitchers and relievers over the course of the next week.
C - Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies: Iannetta struggled horribly last season, yet was still among the best power hitters at his position. Iannetta, 26, averaged one home run per 18.1 at-bats, a rate that trailed just two other backstops - American League MVP Joe Mauer and new teammate Miguel Olivo. With a rebound performance and the added peace of mind from a contract extension he signed in the off-season, Iannetta could be in for 25 homers in 2010.
Also noteworthy: Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates (upside with injury risk); Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants (position’s top rookie); Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians (switch-hitting prospect in the Victor Martinez mold).
1B - Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals: Things finally clicked for Butler in the second of half of last season. He’s been an adept big league hitter over the course of his three seasons, but his lack of power production was making Royals’ brass impatient. Consider the problem [almost] solved. Project Butler’s second-half power numbers over 600 at-bats, and he would be good for 28-30 homers. Expect that kind of production this season.
Also noteworthy: Chris Davis, Texas Rangers (prime rebound candidate with plus-power); Nick Johnson, New York Yankees (return to the Bronx could key career revival); Justin Smoak, Texas Rangers (the next Mark Teixeira needs Davis to stumble).
2B - Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox: One of the most overexposed “sleepers” in fantasy this season, Beckham will still out-produce the ninth-round draft choice it will take to obtain him. Beckham, an advanced college prospect entering the 2008 draft, has superstar skills and intangibles, and he has the game to become an elite fantasy second baseman THIS season.
Also noteworthy: Orlando Hudson, Minnesota Twins (always a relevant contributor); Scott Sizemore, Detroit Tigers (Rookie has 15 HR, 10 SB potential); Kelly Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks (written off, but could thrive in new scenery).
3B - Brandon Wood, Los Angeles Angels: Look no further than the other corner of the Los Angeles infield for proof that a late arrival is better than no arrival at all. Teammate Kendry Morales, written off by many in fantasy last season, excelled when he finally landed a starting job with no strings attached. Wood, who also has 30-home run potential, has the same opportunity this spring. If he does play every day, big results could be there for rock-bottom prices.
Also noteworthy: Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals (annual sleeper still has massive potential); Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox (obvious upgrade in lineup support, RBI chances); Ian Stewart, Colorado Rockies (return to minor league BABIP could mean .260+ avg.).
SS - Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers: Andrus, 21, is being drafted under the assumption that little or no statistical growth is in his immediate future. But, he’s got the type of skill level that wowed Rangers’ management last season, not to mention an existing roto strength in his premium speed. Even if Andrus plateaus in 2010, he will still log 30-plus stolen bases. If he takes a step forward, we could be looking at major improvements across the board.
Also noteworthy: Everth Cabrera, San Diego Padres (is just 23, has speed for 40+ stolen bases); J.J. Hardy, Minnesota Twins (gets fresh start and a clean bill of health); Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels (quietly hit .312 last season).
Sources of Error in RB YPC Projections
Submitted by Fantasy Football Views Blog
In the last few articles, I have shown some average yards per carry and improvement for running backs by age and by experience. In this article, we are going to examine the error we get if we apply these curves to predict 2009 statistics from 2008 and 2007 stats.
We will calculate error on a root-mean-squared (RMS) basis. In other words, we will take our projected 2009 yards per carry, subtract the actual 2009 yards per carry, square the result, add up the squared value for all the players, divide by the number of players, and, finally, take the square root of the result. This gives us a measure that is equally weighted for too high and too low errors, and in units of yards per carry.
As a baseline, we will figure out what the RMS error is if we use last years value or an average of the last two years.
Using last year’s YPC = 0.7597
Using avg of last 2 year’s YPC = 0.6650
So for our system we are trying to come up with, we better have an RMS error of less than 0.6650, or all this fancy cipherin’ will be for nothing.
So we will start with the worst and work our way up to the best.
In last place, we have YPC improvement using the player’s age, with a projection error of 0.8836. Funny, since I put in yesterday’s post that this was my favorite based upon the curve shape, but it seems to not do very well.
Next, is YPC improvement using the player’s experience, with an error of 0.8443. So it looks like multiplying last year’s stats by a player improvement average is actually less accurate than just using the previous years’ stats.
Using average YPC with age results in an error of 0.6206, so we finally have something that is better than just using the player’s stats from the previous year.
Finally, using average YPC with experience results in an error of 0.6166. So just using a player’s experience as opposed to any prior performance is the way to go? That just didn’t seem right. So I decided to use a percentage of prior performance and a percentage of experience for projecting. I ran an analysis to find which split of percentages would minimize error, and found that a split of 20% prior statistics and 80% YPC per experience resulted in a minimal error of 0.5266.
Still, putting so much more weight on experience than prior performance does not feel right. For this analysis, I used only players with 100 or more carries in each of the 3 year of the analysis, so there were only 20 players used. This small sample size could be cause for error, so for 2010 stats, I will use 50% of the player’s last 3 years average, and 50% of the average YPC per experience of the player.
When I’m able to get more years of stats in my database, and when I have time (which may not be until next offseason), I will revisit these numbers to see how the formula should be tweaked.
Next up: running back TDs.
Fantasy Baseball Prospect 2010
Submitted by Fantasy Sports Counselor Blog
The Counselor is IN:
Here is a list of prospects that I like. Prospects are young players who may still be in the minors, rookies, or other young guys yet to fulfill their potential in the majors.
SP Wade Davis - Tampa Bay
Davis is built like a Tight End- 6′5″ and 220lbs. He has 4 solid pitches including a 90+ mph fastball. He was a strikeout fiend in AAA with 7.9 per 9 innings. I expect Davis to make the Rays rotation out of camp.
SS Alcides Escobar - Milwaukee
Escobar is known for his defense but put up very impressive offensive numbers in AAA last year- .298 BA and 42 SB. He can add a lot of speed to your team for low price.
SP/RP Neftail Feliz - Texas
Feliz had a good year in AAA last year but was outstanding as a reliever for the Rangers with a 1.74 ERA. It is possible he might move to the rotation and if he does, his average and whip will go up but I look for him to adapt. He is a year or two away from dominating but is worth picking up especially in keeper leagues.
OF Jason Heyward - Atlanta
Heyward blew through the minors last year and showed why he is a great hitting prospect. He could make the starting lineup in the outfield for the Braves by Opening Day.
1B Justin Smoak - Rangers
Smoak will be pushing Chris Davis for the 1B starting position by this time next season so Davis better pull it together today. Smoak brings a good glove, batting average, and on coming power. Look for Smoak to start in AAA and light it up.
2B Scott Sizemore - Detroit
In the weakest fantasy position, Sizemore could make a difference this year for your team. He brings 20/20 potential with .300 BA. He is the kind of kid you will root for even if you are not a Tigers fan or own him on your fantasy team.
OF Austin Jackson - Detroit
Jackson would still be in the minors this season if he was still with the Yankees farm system. But Jackson was traded to the Tigers and they are licking them chops to see what this speedster can do. He is slated to be the opening day starting Center Fielder for the Tigers. He should steal between 25-35 bags.
OF Julio Borbon - Rangers
Borbon is the starting Center Fielder for the Rangers. He is a more polished Jackson and may have a bit more speed. I believe Borbon will swipe 30-40+ bases for you.
The Counselor is OUT:
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Cowboys Pride Radio special edition
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
The Counselor is IN:
As most of my readers know, I am the co-host on the Cowboys Pride Weekly Radio show on Blog Talk Radio. This week, Doyle and I will be making a huge announcement. Please tune in for the announcement on Thursday March 4, 2010 at 8:00 PM CST.
The Counselor is OUT:
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as the regular season approaches.
Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees
Overview: Classy leader of World Series Champions advancing in age (35, 36 in June), but also coming off a resurgent offensive season in ‘09 … had possibly his worst statistical season in ‘08, then bounced back to contend for American League MVP honors … at his best, is an AL batting title contender with potential for 20 HRs, 20 SBs, 110 runs and 70 RBIs … there are ongoing concerns about his age, especially after showing signs of regression in ‘08.
2009 numbers: .334 avg., 18 HRs, 66 RBI, 107 runs, 30 SBs in 153 games.
Key splits and trends: Consistent whether home or away, though HR totals are higher at home (13 to 5 last season) playing in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium … heated up throughout the year, peaking with a .377 BA in August.
Strengths: Setting the table in front of Teixeira and A-Rod, runs will again be ample … is among the best bets in baseball to post a .300+ average and has room for much more … offers balanced contributions with average or above average category contributions across the board … is also very stabile, having played in 150+ games in 11 of his 14 seasons as a starter.
Weaknesses: Age could be one of the only things slowing him down … true value lies in power and speed, and those categories are more iffy as he gets older.
Bold prediction for 2010: Comes through with a prototype season, but with dips to 12 HRs and 15 SBs.
Cowboys Pride Radio special edition
Submitted by Fantasy Sports Counselor Blog
The Counselor is IN:
As most of my readers know, I am the co-host on the Cowboys Pride Weekly Radio show on Blog Talk Radio. This week, Doyle and I will be making a huge announcement. Please tune in for the announcement on Thursday March 4, 2010 at 8:00 PM CST.
The Counselor is OUT:
32 Team Mock Draft @ Sports Jabber
Submitted by Fantasy Football Views Blog
The Counselor is IN:
The fine folks at Sports Jabber, aka the Wally World of sports sites, is having a 32 Team Mock Draft. If you would like to try your hand at the being the General Manager for a team and pick the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft, this is the game for you. You will need to sign up with Sports Jabber but it is a free sign up. There are several teams left. Here is a link to the post. If you stop by there, let them know I sent you.
The Counselor is OUT:
RB Performance with Age
Submitted by Fantasy Football Views Blog
As promised, today we are going to look at how running backs perform per age. First, we added up all the yards gained by 20-year-olds, 21-year-olds, 22-year-olds, etc, then divided by the number of carries for each age group. The figure below shows the results.
The only 20 year old to play RB in the last three years, is Gary Russell, who I have never heard of either. His three yards per carry in his rookie season is what is bringing down the chart on the left-hand side. After peaking at age 24, players gradually decline until age 30, where there is an unexpected upturn that I am starting to refer to as the “Fred Taylor Effect.”
The best explanation I can come up with for the Fred Taylor Effect is that only the best running backs are kept around after age 30 - a mediocre back will get replaced by a cheaper, higher upside, rookie.
Now lets take a look at average player improvement at each age. Values over 1 in the chart below indicate improvement, and values under 1 indicate that the player’s performance dropped.
This is my favorite chart so far, because it is the closest to the trend I originally expected. Again, Gary Russell was responsible for the initial dip (as he was the only 21-year-old to have 20-year-old statistics), but the peak improvement at age 24 and 25 make a lot of sense. Then players tend to stay about the same until age 29, when they drop off. Again, the Fred Taylor effect kicks in as players pass age 30.
Note that the improvment past age 30 can’t be explained by merely saying that only the best back is kept around past age 30, because these guys are actually getting BETTER after they are supposedly past their prime. Still, I think this is a statistical anomaly in recent stats brought on by Fred Taylor, Ricky Williams, et. al.
Up next, we will try to determine which of these plots we have looked at would have resulted in teh best predictor of 2009 performance.
RB Improvement with Experience
Submitted by Fantasy Football Views Blog
OK, here’s the update - I’ve got the last three season’s (2007, 2008, and 2009) worth of games into my database and I can finally start to play around with some stats.
So now the question becomes, what is the best way to project a player’s improvement?
I’m starting by looking at running backs and yards per carry. I am breaking down everything by years of experience. In the chart below, I added up all the carries for first year players, then added up all the yards that first year players gained, then divided yards by carries to get yards per carry for first year players. Then I did the same for second year players, third year players, etc.
The first 8 or 9 years of this chart looked like I expected, but there is a very unexpected spike in year 10. This is due to some pretty good year 10’s lately from Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and Ricky Williams. Those guys also got many more carries than other year 10 guys, so the average was heavily weighted towards their performances.
So to take the number-of-carries bias out of the equation, I just decided to average up all the individual yard per carries for each year of experience. That looked like this:
Hmmm… same shape, just the numbers are a little lower, owing to the fact that guys with better yards per carry tend to get more carries.
OK, lets try another approach. Lets see how individual players improve from year-to-year with experiance. In other words, how much does the average year 2 player improve over his year 1 performance, how does the average year 3 player improve over his year 2 performance, and so on.
Well, we’re just not going to get over the late-career bias in this one, but I still think this one might turn out to be the most useful. This would give us the ability to use last season’s stats to project a player’s performance in the next season. However, no way I am projecting huge improvements for running backs going into years 9 and 10. (Sorry, LaDainian.)
Up next, we will look at the same charts ordered by age as opposed to experience, then we will look at ways to figure out which method is the most accurate.
Another interesting idea, if we have time, is to use a player’s total carries entering a season to predict performance.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Profile: Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
We will be rolling out plenty of 2010 fantasy baseball coverage in the coming days, weeks and months, but let’s start right here with player-by-player profiles of our rough top 100 preseason rankings. Stay tuned to the site for more player profiles, draft kit information, rankings, sleepers, busts, etc. as Spring Training approaches.
Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Overview: Third place finisher in NL Cy Young voting last season … was steady and productive throughout the season, tying for the Major League lead with 19 wins and piling up 25 quality starts … went at least 6 innings in 32 straight starts to finish the season … heavy work load combined with jump in K rate (to 8.19 Ks per 9) led to his first career season with 200+ Ks … made his name in ‘06 as closer of the Cardinals’ World Series team and has since improved each season as a starter.
2009 numbers: 19-8, 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 212 Ks in 233.0 IP
Key splits and trends: Averaged 6.1 strikeouts per 9 innings his first two seasons as a starter, then reached the next level in fantasy by averaging 8.2 Ks per 9 last season … earned a decision in 27 of his 34 starts, the result of consistently working into the late innings … got better in the second half, especially in the control department … averaged 3.3 walks per 9 before the All-Star break and 1.6 BB/9 after … went 7-7 with a 2.05 ERA at Busch Stadium and 12-1 with a 3.39 ERA on the road.
Strengths: He’s the prototypical fantasy starter in that he’s ultra reliable from start to start … bump in K rate also makes him a legitimate contender for both 200 innings and 200 strikeouts … with his ability to compete deep into starts, 20 wins is also realistic.
Weaknesses: Is middle of the road, in terms of hittability (.244 BAA last season) … has never been a dominator in WHIP; last season’s 1.21 mark was a notch better than his career average (1.26).
Bold prediction for 2010: We’re looking for similar numbers, but a more realistic 3.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 18 wins.
