What do we make of Colorado Rockies’ outfielder Carlos Gonzalez in 2010? He’s a pedigree player who put it all together at the end of last season, but he’s got a short resume of Major League production and would require something of a stretch to keep over other, more qualified candidates.
But, oh my, the short resume is a good one.
Once Gonzalez got his footing after his mid-season callup in 2009, he showed big-time flashes of fantasy brilliance. Gonzalez has power, he’s got speed, and he sure looks to have the “it” factor that separates good from average and great from good. And of course, the icing on the cake is Coors Field, which is among Major League Baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks.
There’s a lot to like in Gonzalez, but all the positives are based on tools and limited statistics. The fundamental question to ask yourself is, do I believe that Gonzalez took a permanent leap forward in the second half of last season? Or do I believe that his previous Major League struggles are more indicative of his future?
“Gonzalez hit .320 with a .608 slugging percentage in the second half of the season. He hit 11 homers in his final 44 games after hitting a grand total of six homers in his first 130 big- league games. I don’t think it was an aberration.
CarGo can hit leadoff or second. He can hit triples and steal bases. I can even envision him hitting third at some point in his career.”
Saunders hints at what fantasy owners should really note: Gonzalez is a dynamic player with a diverse skill set. Gonzalez, 24, is young and has a rare enough power-speed combo to make him a worthwhile risk. If push comes to shove, believe that Gonzalez is the real deal and do what it takes to protect his place on your roster.
This column’s intent is to give the readers an idea of few good players in favorable match ups and a few good players in bad match ups. If you have a great player, then it may not advisable to bench him for someone in the Line ‘em Up section. If I suggest that you bench one of your studs, you can only do this if you have a good option behind him. If you don’t have a good player behind him, don’t bench ‘em. Remember every league is different and I am advising from a standard league.
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Line ‘em Up
QB Donovan McNabb of Philadelphia.McNabb faces the 27th ranked pass defense of the 49ers.Look for a big game out of him.
QB Matt Cassel of Kansas City. Cassel has been terrible as a fantasy QB.This week he has a chance to have a good week against the 25th ranked pass defense of Cleveland. Cassel should look a little bit like he did last year against the Browns.v
RB Jamaal Charles of Kansas City. Charles is the starting back for Chiefs since Johnson left town.He ran for 143 yards last week.He is a good start against the 28th ranked defense of the Browns.
RB Knowshon Moreno ofDenver.Moreno has been great his rookie year.He has a great match up against the 30th ranked rush defense of the Raiders.
WR Anquan Boldin of Arizona. Boldin has been sporadic all season.He is a good start this week against Detroit’s 32nd ranked pass defense.
WR Calvin Johnson of Detroit. Johnson is good start anyway but this week he faces a good match up against Arizona’s 28th ranked pass defense.
Bench their Butts
QB Ben Roethilisberger of Pittsburgh. Big Ben is a good fantasy starter.This week he faces the 3rd ranked pass defense of the Packers.If you have another good option, I would go with the other options.
QB Matt Hasselbeck of Seattle. Hasselbeck is a below average fantasy QB.This week will be rough on him against a surprisingly good pass defense of the Bucs (#7 ranked).
RB Ryan Grant of Green Bay. Grant is a decent fantasy backup or flex player.This week he faces the best rush defense in the league in the Steelers.Leave Grant on the bench this week.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson of San Diego. LT is not the stud he used to be but he is a decent start most weeks.This week, he is facing the 3rd ranked rush defense of the Cincinnati.
WR Randy Moss of the New England. Moss has not been a strong fantasy starter this season.He is facing the 5th ranked pass defense of the Bills.At the beginning of the season, who would have guessed that the advise would be to bench Moss against the Bills?
WR Steve Smith of the New York Giants.The Giants face the 4th ranked pass defense in the Redskins.I would look for the Giants to focus on the run and not so much with the pass.Smith should have a down game.
Here are the Thursday edition of Week 15 fantasy injuries and my commentary. I am posting a Thursday’s edition along with the regular Weekend edition. The Thursday Edition will list injuries for the Thursday’s games only.
Colts: WR Anthony Gonzalez is doubtful with a knee injury. He did not practice on Tuesday.
WR Pierre Garcon has an ankle injury and probable. He fully practiced on Tuesday.
QB Peyton Manning is probable with an upper leg injury.He fully practiced on Tuesday.
RB Joseph Addai has a knee injury and is questionable.He fully practiced on Tuesday.
RB Donald Brown is out with a chest injury.
K Adam Vinatieri has a knee injury and is out.
Jaguars: RB Maurice Jones-Drew is probable with a knee injury.He fully practiced on Tuesday.
WR Mike Sims-Walker is probable with a calf injury.He missed practice on Tuesday.
Wanting to get the Boston Red Sox’ hometown perspective on the John Lackey signing, we went and checked out the Boston Globe this morning to find the headline ‘Lackey has team convinced he’ll succeed at Fenway.’ We were unaware of Lackey’s previous struggles at Boston’s Fenway Park, but came away from the story a little concerned about his fantasy future.
Lackey is 2-5 with a 5.76 ERA in nine starts at Fenway Park. The Red Sox hit .314 against him in those starts, including 8 homers in 51.2 innings pitched. Sure, it’s a small sample size and Lackey is now pitching for the team that so rudely welcomed him, but we still have a few doubts about the $82.5 million contract he signed to pitch there.
The Globe’s Amalie Benjamin had the following to say: “Perhaps [the Red Sox' skepticism over signing Lackey] was in reference to the time Lackey was caught talking to himself after giving up a home run, including the line, “They should blow this [expletive] place up.’’’
Welcome home, John!
We don’t believe this is an impossible hill for Lackey to climb, but he could fall victim to the same inconsistencies that plague Boston ace Josh Beckett. Remember, Lackey’s skill set in fantasy is more of a workhorse and a winner than a true dominator.
The righty has a 69-38 record over the last five seasons and, when healthy, is a lock for 200-plus innings. However, Lackey’s ERA (3.49 since ‘05) and Ks per 9 (7.2 over the past 3 seasons) fall considerably short of elite status.
Lackey does have a lot of ‘big game’ in him - a big reason he was so valued in the free agency market - and a move to Boston will give him a few more of those chances.
But, between the Fenway Park factor and Lackey’s natural limitations, we aren’t predicting any significant improvements in his stat line this season. In fact, we think his averages over the past five seasons (3.49 ERA, 14-16 wins, 170 Ks) would be a best-case scenario.
Former New York Yankees designated hitter Hideki Matsui signed a one-year, $6 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels this week, according to the LA Daily News. Matsui comes off a resurgent season, in which he hit .274 with 28 home runs and 90 RBIs, and ventures away from New York for the first time in his Major League career.
Matsui figures to take on the same role in Los Angeles as he did in New York. The 35-year-old got 437 of his 456 at-bats last season as the Yankees’ designated hitter, and he led all DHs with 27 homers, according to MLB.com. The Angels are deep in the outfield and should call on Matsui to man left field only on the rarest of occasions.
After putting Matsui’s productive 2009 season into context, our basic assumption was, Yankee Stadium played a big part in his improved production levels. Wrong. Godzilla hit .286 with 15 HRs and 41 RBIs in 203 at-bats on the road, compared to a .265 average, 13 HRs and 49 RBIs in 253 at-bats at home. The short porch in right field actually worked against him, which was the exception to the rule amongst Yankee hitters.
And while we were looking at splits, we liked the fact that the lefty-hitting Matsui mashed left-handed pitching and finished the year stronger than he started. He had a .976 OPS against lefties and saved his best work for last, hitting 13 homers and driving in 43 runs in the final two months of the season.
All the signs point to, assuming good health, another good season for Matsui. The Angels’ lineup lost a little potency with speedy third baseman Chone Figgins moving on to Seattle, but there should still be plenty of production opportunities. Matsui will likely settle into a role as the team’s No. 5 or No. 6 hitter and be within shouting distance of last season’s numbers.
Assume 20+ home runs and 90 RBIs, which would make Matsui a bargain in the 29th round - his current average draft position on MockDraftCentral.com.
Halladay is a fantasy ace, no matter the uniform he’s wearing or the stadium he calls home. Citizens Bank Park isn’t exactly a pitcher’s best friend, but Halladay is a veteran who keeps the ball down and limits the damage on his mistakes. And don’t forget about the lesser National League lineups, ones that are watered down with unathletic pitchers taking their ugly hacks. Halladay’s numbers should certainly even out, perhaps even improve, as he moves on to a contender with a high-powered offense behind him.
Lee had an excellent second-half run with the Phillies last season and went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in the postseason, but Philly saw little chance in re-signing him. So, they ship him to the Mariners, who are reportedly sending pitching prospect Phillipe Aumont to the Blue Jays. RHP Brandon Morrow is also a name that FOX Sports mentions as a possible trading chip, but those details are not yet clear.
Halladay and Lee look like the two sure things in this deal, and neither figure to gain or lose substantial fantasy value. Lee is more of a question mark, given all the unknowns associated with a move to Seattle. But both these guys are elder statesmen in the game and true professionals who should hang around their current draft position - somewhere in the 3rd round in standard mixed leagues for Halladay, somewhere in rounds 6-7 for Lee.
As for the other guys being mentioned - Aumont, Michael Taylor, Dominic Brown - they don’t become fantasy relevant for at least another season. Pitchers J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton may or may not be on the move as well, but we’ll address those guys when the deal is finalized.
Before we get started, check out this week’s round table debate on the top three fantasy basketball rookies (click here from the article). You can also check out next week’s NBA schedule as you prepare to set your fantasy lineup (click here for the article).
Now, here’s a look at some fantasy basketball players that blew up the box score last night.
Jarrett Jack, Toronto Raptors 38 MIN, 17 PTS, 6-10 FG, 3-5 FT, 2 3PM, 8 REB, 8 AST, 1 STL, 3 TO
Jack has been incredible in the four starts he’s made for Jose Calderon (hip) averaging 14.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.3 assists. Calderon should be back soon, but keep playing Jack while he’s out. Jack also has value when he comes off the bench.
Terence Williams, New Jersey Nets 26 MIN, 18 PTS, 8-14 FG, 1-2 FT, 1 3PM, 7 REB, 2 AST, 1 STL, 1 TO
Terence reached double-figures for the first time since November 24th. I’d make him prove it before adding him.
Maurice Evans, Atlanta Hawks 34 MIN, 22 PTS, 8-13 FG, 2-2 FT, 4 3PM, 9 REB, 2 AST, 1 STL
Evans is averaging 18.3 points over his last three games.
Dorell Wright, Miami Heat 27 MIN, 16 PTS, 6-9 FG, 2-2 FT, 2 3PM, 4 REB, 1 AST, 1 BLK, 1 TO
Wright played well in a blowout. Don’t put too much stock in his performance.
DeJuan Blair, San Antonio Spurs 17 MIN, 14 PTS, 7-9 FG, 9 REB, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 2 TO
Blair struggled the past four games (2.0 points per game) so it was nice to see him snap out of the funk. He typically produces when he gets an opportunity, but currently isn’t getting enough of them.
There were some unusual heroes on Sunday. There always are. Let’s take a look at them and see if they are worthy of your fantasy rosters.
Kerry Collins, QB, Tennessee Titans Collins replaced Vince Young and played well enough. He wasn’t really a fantasy factor last year when he had the Titans rolling. Don’t bother with him unless you’re in a 2-QB league and he’s your only option.
Ruling: Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Ryan Moats, RB, Houston Texans Moats was Houston’s best RB today running for 43 yards on ten carries with a TD. The Texans are a passing team first and foremost, and with Chris Brown and Arian Foster in the mix, you just can’t rely on any Texan RB in the fantasy playoffs.
Ruling: Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore Ravens Willis had 76 yards on 12 carries with a pair of TDs. They came in garbage time though, as the Ravens destoryed the Lions. He has four TDs in his last three games making him a risky flex play next week against the Bears. I’d look elsewhere personally.
Ruling: Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Quinton Ganther, WR, Washington Redskins Ganther ran for a couple of TDs against the Raiders with 93 total yards. The Skins are actually scoring some points and he could be used as a flex play the next couple of weeks against the Giants and the Cowboys.
Ruling: Get ‘em.
Greg Camarillo, WR, Miami Dolphins He has 11 catches for 171 yards the past two weeks, including seven for 110 in a win of Jacksonville. With Tennessee and Houston up next, Camarillo could be a decent desperation option.
Ruling: Get ‘em.
Johnny Knox & Devin Aromashodu, WRs, Chicago Bears They both played well this week as Devin Hester (calf) was out. They play Baltimore and Minnesota the next two weeks so they aren’t attractive options going forward.
Ruling: Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Michael Jenkins, WR, Atlanta Falcons He’s had 76, 80, and now 82 in the last three games he’s played in (he missed Wee, 13 vs. Philly). The Falcons play the Jets next week, and he could be a decent play as Darrelle Revis focuses his attention on Roddy White.
Ruling: Get ‘em.
Don’t forget to vote on the NFL Director of Fandemonium for a chance to win $75 at NFLshop.com (click here for details).
Mark Ingram was the first power running back to take home the Heisman Trophy since Ricky Williams and Ron Dayne won it in 1998 and 1999 respectively. He ends a string of three consecutive Quarterback winners. In fact, Quarterbacks have won eight of the last nine Heisman Trophies.
Too often it seemed that the QB of the #1 team would take home college’s most prestigious award. Of those eight QBs, only Carson Palmer went on to success in the NFL. Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford haven’t had their opportunity yet, but I’m not one who thinks they’ll have productive pro careers.
When the Heisman was at its best was between 1968-1988. That stretch produced Hall of Famers O.J. Simpson, Tony Dorsett, Earl Campbell, Marcus Allen, and Barry Sanders. It also produced quality RBs Billy Sims, Herschel Walker, Mike Rozier, and Bo Jackson.
I’m not saying that Ingram belongs in the first batch of Backs, but perhaps he can help buck the trend of glorifying the QB and prompt Heisman voters to take the best player and not just the best QB. After all, he became Alabama’s first Heisman winner so anything is possible.
Before we get started, check out this week’s round table debate on the top three fantasy basketball rookies (click here from the article). You can also check out next week’s NBA schedule as you prepare to set your fantasy lineup (click here for the article).
Now, here’s a look at some fantasy basketball players that blew up the box score last night.
Tyler Hansbrough, Indiana Pacers 25 MIN, 19 PTS, 7-14 FG, 5-6 FT, 3 REB, 1 STL
Psycho-T is averaging 17.7 points over his last three games.
Mike Dunleavy, Indiana Pacers 27 MIN, 24 PTS, 5-7 FG, 10-10 FT, 4 3PM, 2 REB, 5 AST, 3 STL, 2 TO
Dunleavy has hit double-digits in all but one game he’s played in this year. He’ll shoulder more of the scoring load the next few weeks with Danny Granger out.
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors 38 MIN, 19 PTS, 5-10 FG, 6-6 FT, 3 3PM, 2 REB, 4 AST, 4 STL, 1 BLK, 4 TO
Curry has picked up his game averaging 14.8 points and 2.6 steals over his past five games.
C.J. Watson, Golden State Warriors 36 MIN, 13 PTS, 6-11 FG, 1-1 FT, 4 REB, 6 AST
C.J. is averaging 13.4 points and 3.0 assists over his past five games.
Richard Hamilton, Detroit Pistons37 MIN, 18 PTS, 6-15 FG, 5-7 FT, 1 3PM, 2 REB, 1 AST, 3 STL, 3 TO
Rip is back. He doesn’t do much but score. His value is limited. His return could mark the end of Will Bynum’s relevance.
Erick Dampier, Dallas Mavericks 40 MIN, 14 PTS, 7-7 FG, 18 REB, 1 AST, 1 STL, 3 BLK, 2 TO
Dampier is averaging 16.0 points and 16.5 rebounds over his past two games.
Wesley Matthews, Utah Jazz 38 MIN, 19 PTS, 7-12 FG, 3-4 FT, 2 3PM, 2 REB, 6 AST, 1 TO
Wesley is a decent option in daily transaction leagues as a fill-in. He rarely has a big game, but is pretty steady.
Martell Webster, Porland Trail Blazers 33 MIN, 16 PTS, 6-14 FG, 1-1 FT, 3 3PM, 4 REB, 2 AST, 3 TO
Webster has scored in double-digits that past two games.
Joel Pryzbilla, Portland Trail Blazers 44 MIN, 8 PTS, 2-3 FT, 4-5 FT, 10 REB, 2 STL, 4 BLK, 2 TO
He’s averaging 9.8 rebounds over his past five games.
Luke Ridnour, Milwaukee Bucks 22 MIN, 20 PTS, 7-10 FG, 6-6 FT, 4 REB, 2 AST1 STL, 2 TO
He’s playing well despite a sore elbow.
Louis Amundson, Phoenix Suns 25 MIN, 12 PTS, 6-7 FG, 11 REB, 2 AST, 2 STL, 4 BLK, 1 TO
Monster game, but he’ll need to show he can do it a few more times before I’d worry about adding him.
Chris Andersen, Denver Nuggets 20 MIN, 9 PTS, 1-1 FG, 7-8 FT, 10 REB, 1 STL, 1 BLK
The Birdman is a solid option for rebounds and blocks.
Before we get started, check out this week’s round table debate on the top three fantasy basketball rookies (click here from the article). You can also check out next week’s NBA schedule as you prepare to set your fantasy lineup (click here for the article).
Now, here’s a look at some fantasy basketball players that blew up the box score last night.
Rafer Alston, New Jersey Nets
28 MIN, 17 PTS, 7-16 FG, 2-3 FT, 1 3PM, 2 REB, 3 AST, 2 STL, 1 BLK
Alston has been in double-figures the last three games, but doesn’t have fantasy value unless he’s starting. Courtney Lee (14 points, 3 steals) is the better pickup.
Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers 27 MIN, 20 PTS, 8-17 FG, 3-3 FT, 1 3PM, 9 REB, 1 STL, 3 BLK, 2 TO
Hibbert has fallen out of favor with Jim O’Brien. This performance did come against the Nets, which doesn’t hold as much weight. Still, if he can continue his strong play, he could earn back the playing time he lost.
Tyler Hansbrough, Indiana Pacers 25 MIN, 21 PTS, 8-18 FG, 2-2 FT, 3 3PM, 7 REB, 1 AST, 3 STL
This is his second straight strong game so take note. Don’t add him quite yet, as it did come against the Nets.
Allen Iverson, Philadelphia 76ers 35 MIN, 20 PTS, 7-18 FG, 6-9 FT, 5 REB, 3 AST, 1 TO
A.I. shot poorly, and the Sixers lost. His fantasy value is still there though. Maurice Evans, Atlanta Hawks 30 MIN, 15 PTS, 6-9 FG, 3 3PM, 5 REB
Evans is averaging 16.5 points in his last two games but, like Zaza Pachulia (14 points, 6 rebounds), doesn’t have much fantasy value without an injury to a starter or Jamal Crawford.
Jose Juan Barea, Dallas Mavericks 34 MIN, 12 PTS, 4-8 FG, 1-2 FT, 3 3PM, 4 REB, 10 AST, 2 STL, 1 TO
He’s played back-to-back 30+ minute games and has responded with averages of 13 points, 3 rebounds, 8 assists, 1.5 steals, and 2.5 three-pointers. As long as he’s playing steady minutes, he’ll produce.
Chris Duhon, New York Knicks 34 MIN, 22 PTS, 7-11 FG, 2-2 FT, 6 3PM, 2 REB, 9 AST, 1 STL
Consistency is an issue, but he’s a heavy part of the rotation right now, which means his production should be up.
Brad Miller, Chicago Bulls 27 MIN, 12 PTS, 5-11 FG, 2-2 FT, 13 REB, 2 AST, 2 TO
The Warriors are hurting up front so this performance should not be surprising. Don’t put too much stock in it.
Juwan Howard, Portland Trail Blazers 16 MIN, 15 PTS, 6-7 FG, 3-4 FT, 1 REB
I love to see this Fav Fiver play well, but the fluke factor is high.
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers 36 MIN, 22 PTS, 10-17 FG, 2-3 FT, 10 REB, 1 AST, 2 STL1 BLK, 1 TO
Varejao has played increased minutes of late, and has responded in kind.
Mickael Pietrus, Orlando Magic 32 MIN, 23 PTS, 8-15 FG, 3-3 FT, 4 3PM, 8 REB, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 2 TO
Pietrus has three really good games mixed in with two duds in his last five games. He’s worth adding to your roster, but is a risk to use in your lineup. If you need three-pointers though, he’s your guy.
Jared Dudley, Phoenix Suns 33 MIN, 19 PTS, 6-13 FG, 3-4 FT, 4 3PM, 5 REB, 2 STL
Dudley is up and down as well, but a good source for threes.
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We talked in detail about how Curtis Granderson and the New York Yankees benefited from a three-team deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Detroit Tigers. But, how about the D-backs and Tigers, what was in the deal for them?
Trading Granderson and All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson wasn’t a popular move by the Tigers, but if they absolutely had to go for the sake of lowering payroll, the Tigers got the kind of haul to make the move worthwhile.
Young RHP Max Scherzer has a chance to replace Jackson’s production NOW and far exceed it down the road, while LHPs Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke provide big boosts to the Detroit bullpen. Outfielder Austin Jackson, 22, is a top prospect with plenty of upside and the ability to claim a Major League roster spot now.
The big score for Arizona was in Jackson, who at age 26, had a career season for the Tigers. He’s a more known commodity than Scherzer for the D-backs, who are surely banking on a 1-2-3 punch in the rotation with Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Jackson to win in the short-term. Arizona also received 24-year-old RHP Ian Kennedy from the Yankees, who has a chance to crack the team’s starting rotation and offers a higher ceiling down the road.
Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes has been criticized over the deal, according to the Arizona Republic. The organization likes Kennedy, who Byrnes praised for his four-pitch repertoire and outstanding minor league track record. If Byrnes’ view of Kennedy proves to be correct, there is some real value in the new-found depth in the team’s rotation.
Time, as they say, will tell, and the key for Arizona lies in Kennedy’s ability to blossom into an impact Major League starter, says the Republic’s Nick Piecoro.
“Jackson, though, has only two more years of club control - at which point, as a Scott Boras client, he is likely to depart as a free agent - making Kennedy’s performance down the road a key to whether it’s a sink or swim deal for the Diamondbacks.”
You don’t need experts of any kind to tell you that the Curtis Granderson deal was a real coup for the New York Yankees. A young, do-it-all outfielder type goes to the Bronx and not only solidifies the Bronx Bombers’ offense, but boosts their defense and helps them take a step toward ‘reloading’ with new talent.
There was a price to pay in dealing top prospect Austin Jackson, young pitcher Ian Kennedy and lefty reliever Phil Coke in the three-team deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Detroit Tigers. All in all, though, it was an excellent move by under-appreciated Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman.
This is an annual storyline, where a good fantasy player takes a step towards greatness simply by being inserted into the Yankees’ star-studded lineup. Granderson has the kind of all-around game that should reap full benefits of both the big boppers behind him and the cozy dimensions of the new Yankee Stadium.
The typical upgrade in Granderson’s fantasy value can be expected, with upticks in his runs scored and RBI totals. Even if the 28-year-old’s career-high 30 home runs were ‘flukey’ in any way last season, playing home games at Yankee Stadium still makes a similar power total likely in 2010.
But, we want to see how the rest of that Yankees’ lineup alters Granderson’s approach at the plate. He’s a free swinger who joins one of baseball’s most patient, veteran offenses. The patient approach can be contagious, and if it rubs off on Granderson, that .249 batting average from last season would be a thing of the past.
Granderson isn’t a prototypical leadoff hitter, but he should find himself at the top of the Yankees’ lineup, either as the leadoff man or a No. 2 hitter behind Derek Jeter. Falling in line behind Jeter is preferable for his fantasy value because it gives him the best chance of maximizing his versatility and padding his totals in RBIs and runs scored.
Regardless, we’ll point out the obvious and say that Granderson’s value takes a nice leap forward next season. How much will depend on his ability improve his plate discipline and cut down on his strikeouts, two things that could send his batting average back into the .280s, where it was two seasons ago.
After the Boston Red Sox evaluated free agent shortstop Marco Scutaro and deemed him worthy of a two-year, $12.5 million contract, fantasy owners should have taken their cue. Scutaro, who rose suddenly to fantasy “usefulness,” is a quality baseball player and a “glue guy” for fantasy and Major League teams alike.
Scutaro wasn’t particularly flashy in fantasy, hitting .282 with 12 HRs, 60 RBIs, 100 runs and 14 stolen bases in 144 games last season, but he did make an impact, despite dealing with plantar fasciitis in his right heel. Read the words of Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein carefully, and you’ll see a real GM trying to do what fantasy GMs couldn’t last season; make sense of Scutaro’s sudden splash.
“When someone has a career year, a best of his career year at age 33, I think you have to look at it with some scrutiny, and we did at the beginning of this process,’’ Epstein told the Boston Globe. “You want to see if you can identify factors that contributed to it, how many of those factors are repeatable, and how many are just random or luck.”
Later in the Globe story, Epstein hits on exactly what made the difference for Scutaro last season: opportunity. He had played seven seasons as a part-timer and utility player in New York, Oakland and Toronto before taking over as the Blue Jays’ starting shortstop last season. Certainly, after 650 games and 1,000-plus at-bats worth of experience, a grinder like Scutaro was more than ready to take advantage of an everyday job.
There’s a point to all this, I promise. And that is, Scutaro will at least be in the neighborhood of last season’s production. He can also take another step forward statistically, given his escape from Toronto to the more fantasy-friendly environment in Boston. His lineup is better, and his home ballpark is more condusive to extra-base hits.
Unlike last season, fantasy owners will have to pay for Scutaro’s services at the beginning of the season. But, given the amount of faith the Boston organization put into him, he looks every bit like a sound investment as a rock steady backup shortstop.
Fantasy Sports are a completely different animal than real life sports. The ultimate statistic players are measured on in real life is winning. However, in fantasy sports it is very possible for a player to be on a losing team and also be one of the most valuable fantasy players in the game. In other words, the biggest loser can also be the biggest winner on the fantasy basketball court.
Since BleacherCreatureRotoTalk is all about optimizing your lineup and identifying breakout players we wanted to explore the concept of using a team’s environment as metric for identifying potential break out players. By environment we refer to the depth of talent surrounding the player and the team’s offensive philosophy. Questions used to classify a teams environment are: how many shooters are there on the team and does the team have a dominate scorer or spread the ball around? Adding this new concept of environment, which is essentially being in the right place at the right time, will enhance our predictive abilities around break out players.
The traditional way of evaluating talent is to look at a player’s growth on the court from the previous year and possibly their summer league performance as a leading indicator of future breakout potential. Anthony Randolph is a perfect example. He is highly talented, a perfect physical specimen and he dominated summer league play. Every fantasy expert was ready to crown him the next big breakout star in the NBA. To-date this has not happened and the reason is simple. While the Warriors are a terrible team they are made up of a bunch of shooters who dominate the ball. Golden State is a very tough environment for a big man to break out in simply because big men require their guards to pass them the ball. That is something that is simply not happening out in Golden State.
On the other hand lets take a look Chris Douglas-Roberts and the New Jersey Nets. CDR was a good college player who somehow slipped into the second round. Coming into the season there was not much hype around him breaking out. The Nets are another team that has their fair share of shooters and have two players who dominate the ball. (Devin Harris and Brook Lopez). However, when the injury bug hit almost everyone on the team it opened things up for someone new to elevate their game. CDR stepped right in and flourished. While the team is near healthy now and his numbers will drop somewhat he has broken out and established himself as a player in the league.
Likewise, in Sacramento coming into the season Kevin Marin was clearly (and may still be) the #1 option in the offense. As a result, Tyreke Evans struggled to score with Martin dominating the ball. Then Martin went down to injury and Tyreke is now on pace to win rookie of the year honors. This is just another example of being in the right place at the right time.
So then, what characteristics should we look for when searching for the right the place? It seems apparent that teams with a single dominant scorer and little depth make up the perfect recipe for an environment in which a skilled player can break through given injury.
Taking a look at the NBA landscape, the following teams stand out:
Philadelphia – expect AI to step right in an average over 20ppg
Cleveland – if something were to happen to The King…
Milwaukee – hello Brandon Jennings!!!
Chicago – still searching for a clear #1 option
Detroit – anyone? anyone?
Indiana – If Granger goes down…..
Miami – if D.Wade goes down….
Washington – if Gilbert take a hit, hello Nick Young!
San Antonio – if TD where to go down…
Minnesota – see Johnny Flynn; this team has no top option
Sacramento – we mentioned above
New Jersey – we mentioned above; the perfect storm of injuries
There you have it. The key is to keep an active eye on the injury reports. If someone goes down that is putting in much fantasy work there will be a void to fill. On deep teams the void will likely be filled amongst the talented players already getting minutes. However, thin teams with a single dominant player are truly breading grounds for break out players!
I’ve scoured the fantasy basketball waiver wires to find gems so you don’t have to.
C.J. Watson, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors Golden State has been hit hard by injuries this year making their rotation thin. Pretty much anyone in that rotation is a worthy fantasy option. Watson is no exception. Last week he 15.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers while shooting 55.8 percent from the floor and 87.5 percent from the line. C.J. is owned in 9 percent of Yahoo! and 0.9 percent of ESPN leagues.
Courtney Lee, SG/SF, New Jersey Nets Lee struggled against the Knicks last night, but still averaged 14.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.0 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 1.3 blocks, and 1.5 three-pointers over the past four games. He shot 54.5 percent from the floor and 50 percent from the line. He’s a 78.1 percent free throw shooter on the year though so don’t fret over that number. Courtney is owned in 53 percent of Yahoo! and 10.8 percent of ESPN leagues.
Quentin Richardson, SG/SF, Miami Heat Q’s back issues are behind him now, and he’s putting up some nice fantasy numbers. Last week he averaged 14.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 2.8 three-pointers. He shot 47.6 percent from the floor and 71.4 percent from the stripe. Richardson is owned in 15 percent of Yahoo! and 2.1 percent of ESPN leagues.
Ryan Gomes, SF/PF, Minnesota Timberwolves Gomes wasn’t fazed by Kevin Love’s return as he continued his hot streak. He averaged 19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.0 three-pointer last week. He shot 57.5 percent from the field and 90.0 percent from the line. Gomes is owned in 41 percent of Yahoo! and 7.3 percent of ESPN leagues. Chris Andersen, PF/C, Denver Nuggets Andersen is a specialty player that can give you a bump in field goal percentage, rebounds and blocks. Last week he shot 80.0 percent from the floor and 75.0 percent from the line as he averaged 8.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 0.7 steals, and 3.0 blocks. The Birdman is owned in 57 percent of Yahoo! and 10.2 percent of ESPN leagues.
Anderson Varejao, PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers Like Andersen Varejao is a big man known for his hair. Last week he returned to fantasy relevance after a brief hiatus by averaging 8.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.3 blocks. He hasn’t shot at his typical clip, 37.5 percent last week, but that should come around. He did shoot 75 percent from the line. Varejao is owned in 44 percent of Yahoo! and 5.2 percent of ESPN leagues.
Wesley Matthews, PG/SG, Utah Jazz Matthews stepped up his game last week by averaging 15.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.7 three-pointers. He shot 62.1 percent from the floor and 71.4 percent from the line. Wesley is owned in 4 percent of Yahoo! and 0.7 percent of ESPN leagues.
Vladimir Radmanovic, SF/PF, Golden State Warriors Radmanovic is also taking advantage of the Warriors injuries. Last week he averaged 11.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.8 three-pointers. He shot 47.5 percent from the floor without missing a free throw. Vladimir is owned in 10 percent of Yahoo! and 1.2 percent of ESPN leagues.
Before we get started, check out the current fantasy basketball roundtable debate (click here for the article). You can also look at this week’s NBA schedule as you prepare to set your lineups (click here for the article).
Now, here’s a look at some fantasy basketball players that blew up the box score last night.
Larry Hughes, New York Knicks 40 MIN, 25 PTS, 5-12 FG, 14-17 FT, 1 3PM, 4 REB, 4 AST, 1 BLK, 2 TO
He’s inconsistent, but as long as he’s part of the Knicks’ rotation, he’ll put up nice numbers.
Delonte West, Cleveland Cavaliers 24 MIN, 21 PTS, 6-9 FG, 9-9 FT, 4 REB, 3 AST, 2 STL, 1 BLK, 2 TO
It looks like he’s turning the corner, but I’m not ready to trust him yet.
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers 29 MIN, 5 PTS, 1-3 FG, 3-3 FT, 12 REB, 3 AST, 3 STL, 1 BLK, 1 TO
He’s hitting the boards. Grab him if you need a boost in that category.
Earl Boykins, Washington Wizards
25 MIN, 18 PTS, 5-11 FG, 6-6 FT, 2 3PM, 2 REB, 4 AST
Boykins has hit double-digits in three straight games now. He’s also been a decent source for assists.
Jonas Jerebko, Detroit Pistons 38 MIN, 10 PTS, 3-8 FG, 3-4 FT, 1 3PM, 11 REB, 1 AST, 1 STL, 2 TO
Jonas is averaging 13.0 points and 7.2 rebounds over his past five games.
Quentin Richardson, Miami Heat 36 MIN, 20 PTS, 7-15 FG, 1-2 FT, 5 3PM, 5 REB, 2 AST, 1 BLK, 2 TO
Aside from a dud on 12/3, Q has played well of late. He should be owned in most fantasy leagues.
Dorell Wright, Miami Heat 29 MIN, 19 PTS, 9-13 FG, 1 3PM, 2 REB, 5 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK
Wright is establishing himself as a regular part of Miami’s rotation, but is still far off from being a viable fantasy player.
Donte Greene, Sacramento Kings 41 MIN, 21 PTS, 8-16 FG, 4-7 FT, 1 3PM, 2 REB, 3 AST, 1 STL, 2 TO
Greene hadn’t hit double-digits for four games. This was a nice effort, but not enough for me to endorse him.
There were some unusual heroes on Sunday. There always are. Let’s take a look at them and see if they are worthy of your fantasy rosters.
Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins Henne burned the Pats for 335 yards and a pair of scores. You can’t use him in the fantasy playoffs in a standard league, but with Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Houston up the next three weeks he is useful in two-QB leagues.
Ruling: Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Bruce Gradkowski, QB, Oakland Raiders Gradkowski torched the Steelers for 308 yards and 2 TDs. While I think he’s the right man for the Raiders right now, he’s not the right man for your fantasy team.
Ruling: Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Brady Quinn, QB, Cleveland Browns Quinn has been the butt of almost as many jokes as Charlie Weis. He tossed 3 TDs without an INT. His lines from the past four games should be enough for you to stay clear.
Week 10: 99 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTS
Week 11: 304 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
Week 12: 100 yards, o TDs, o INTs
Week 13: 271 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
Ruling: Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers Smith topped 300 yards for the first time in his career. He tossed multiple TDs for the third straight week. With ARI, PHI, and DET in the fantasy playoffs, he’s worth adding as a bench player and spot starter. He could be the perfect fill-in for Peyton Manning or Drew Brees in Week 16 if their teams are pulling starters.
Ruling: Get ‘em.
Correll Buckhalter, RB, Denver Broncos Buckhalter had 113 yards in 12 carries and 15 yards on three receptions. Knowshon Moreno is the feature back though so unless he goes down, Buck isn’t really worth a roster spot heading into the fantasy playoffs. Their tough schedule of the Colts, Raiders, and Eagles up the next three weeks cements it.
Ruling: Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland Browns Chris Jennings was the chic pick when Jamal Lewis was put on the IR, but Harrison was the more effective back by a mile. It was only his second big game of the year. He’s probably worth a roster spot, but would be a big risk to use.
Ruling: Get ‘em.
Sam Aiken, WR, New England Patriots Aiken has 171 receiving yards the past two weeks, but he only caught one pass this week. Even though it went for an 81-yard score, I can’t trust him in the fantasy playoffs (CAR, BUF, JAX).
Davone Bess, WR, Miami Dolphins Bess has been heavily targeted this season, and he actually could be looked at for the fantasy playoffs (JAX, TENN, HOU).
Ruling: Get ‘em.
Brian Hartline, WR, Miami Dolphins Hartline had a TD in each of his past two games. He doesn’t get enough looks to rely on down the stretch.
Ruling: Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Louis Murphy, WR, Oakland Raiders Murphy torched the Steelers for 128 yards and two scores, but a glance at his game log and you can see why he has no business being on your fantasy team.
Ruling: Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins It’s nice that Thomas was able to show off his potential, which could make him a nice sleeper next year, but you can’t count on him down the stretch.
Ruling: Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins Davis grabbed five balls for 53 yards and a score. It was his second straight game with a TD. He’s a nice option for the fantasy playoffs (OAK, NYG, DAL).
Ruling: Get ‘em.
Zach Miller, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars Miller had 51 yards coming into this week. He caught three passes for 74 yards against Houston. Nothing to see here.
Ruling: Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Before we get started, check out this week’s fantasy basketball roundtable debate (click here for the article). You can also look at next week’s NBA schedule as you prepare to set your lineups (click here for the article).
Now, here’s a look at some fantasy basketball players that blew up the box score last night.
Willie Green, Philadelphia 76ers 41 MIN, 26 PTS, 10-15 FG, 4-4 FT, 2 3PM, 4 AST, 1 BLK
He’s been on a tear, but A.I. is coming. Plus, he hurt his hand last night.
Marco Belinelli, Toronto Raptors 23 MIN, 15 PTS, 6-8 FG, 2-2 FT, 1 3PM, 5 REB, 3 AST, 1 STL, 2 TO
He’s not getting enough opportunities to be a fantasy factor.
Ryan Gomes, Minnesota Timberwolves 36 MIN, 23 PTS, 9-10 FG, 5-5 FG, 5 REB, 5 AST, 1 STL, 2 TO
Gomes is on fire, and has played well in both games since Kevin Love’s return, which is encouraging.
Erick Dampier, Dallas Mavericks 31 MIN, 0 PTS, 0-1 FG, 12 REB, 1 STL, 4 BLK, 2 TO
Weird game. Marvin Williams of the Hawks had three points and 15 rebounds. Dampier doesn’t score and hauls in 12. It’s like they channelled Ben Wallace. The points aren’t there with Dampier right now, but he’s picking up boards and blocks. He’s also rendered Drew Gooden and Tim Thomas useless.
Andres Nocioni, Sacramento Kings 31 MIN, 20 PTS, 7-13 FG, 2-2 FT, 4 3PM, 4 REB, 1 AST, 1 STL, 1 TO
He’s played OK of late, but part of tonight’s performance can be attributed to Phoenix’s lack of defensive prowess.
Joel Pryzbilla, Portland Trail Blazers 35 MIN, 6 PTS, 2-2 FG, 2-2 FT, 12 REB, 1 BLK, 3 TO
Greg Oden is likely done for the year. Pryzbilla should be a decent source of boards and blocks.
Mickael Pietrus, Orlando Magic 36 MIN, 22 PTS, 6-12 FG, 6-7 FT, 4 3PM, 3 REB, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 1 TO
Pietrus is averaging 19.5 points over his past two games, but keep in mind they were against the Knicks and the Warriors.
Jason Williams, Orlando Magic 37 MIN, 12 PTS, 4-9 FG, 2-2 FT, 2 3PM, 5 REB, 8 AST, 1 STL, 4 TO
Williams continues to be a solid source for assists.
Anthony Randolph, Golden State Warriors
35 MIN, 28 PTS, 10-23 FG, 8-9 FT, 13 REB, 5 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK
Randolph missed a couple games because of an ankle injury, but responded in a big way. He should be safe to get back in your lineups.
C.J. Watson, Golden State Warriors 30 MIN, 17 PTS, 6-10 FG, 3-3 FT, 2 3PM, 2 REB, 2 AST, 1 STL, 1 TO
C.J. continued his strong play. He’s averaging 15.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers over his past four games.
Before we get started, check out this week’s fantasy basketball roundtable debate (click here for the article). Now, here’s a look at some fantasy basketball players that blew up the box score last night.
DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
27 MIN, 16 PTS, 6-10 FG, 4-5 FT, 2 REB,1 AST
He’s been playing better of late, but is still pretty up and down.
Earl Boykins, Washington Wizards
39 MIN, 14 PTS, 5-14 FG, 2-2 FT, 2 3PM, 8 REB, 5 AST, 2 STL, 4 TO
Boykins is averaging 10.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 4.8 assists over the last five games. He’s a nice utility player until the Wizards get healthy.
Chris Duhon, New York Knicks
37 MIN, 25 PTS, 10-16 FG, 1-2 FT, 4 3PM, 4 REB, 10 AST, 1 STL
Now it’s Duhon that’s on D’Antoni’s good side. Play him while you can. Better yet, try to move him if possible.
Marvin Williams, Atlanta Hawks
39 MIN, 20 PTS, 7-17 FG, 4-5 FT, 2 3PM, 6 REB, 2 AST, 1 STL, 1 TO
He played the Knicks so an increase in scoring was to be expected. He’s averaging 17.5 points over his past two games though.
Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
24 MIN, 11 PTS, 3-7 FG, 3-4 FT, 2 3PM, 11 REB, 3 AST, 2 STL, 2 TO
Love made his season debut last night. He recorded a double-double, which was typical of last season. He knocked down two threes, which is a new wrinkle.
Devin Brown, New Orleans Hornets
27 MIN, 19 PTS, 7-10 FG, 2-6 FT, 3 3PM, 2 REB, 2 AST, 1 STL, 2 TO
It’s weird that Marcus Thornton and Darren Collison stepped it up when Chris Paul was out, but Brown played huge in his return.
Ryan Gomes, Minnesota Timberwolves
38 MIN, 15 PTS, 6-17 FG, 2-2 FT, 1 3PM, 7 REB, 2 AST, 2 STL, 2 TO
Kevin Love’s return didn’t hurt Gomes. He’s averaging 20.7 points over his past three games.
Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls
35 MIN, 14 PTS, 7-14 FG, 13 REB, 1 STL
He’s averaging 7.7 rebounds over the pasts seven games.
Daniel Gibson, Cleveland Cavaliers
25 PTS, 15 PTS, 7-9 FG, 1 3PM, 3 REB, 1 AST, 1 TO
Gibson was on tonight, but hasn’t been productive enough to have on a fantasy roster.
Carlos Delfino, Milwaukee Bucks
32 MIN, 15 PTS, 6-12 FG, 1-1 FT, 2 3PM, 7 REB, 2 AST, 1 TO
Delfino continues to play well for the Bucks and merits fantasy consideration.
Luke Ridnour, Milwaukee Bucks
27 PTS, 21 REB, 7-11 FG, 4-4 FT, 3 3PM, 2 REB, 9 AST, 3 STL, 2 TO
Ridnour is playing some of the best basketball of his NBA life right now.
Jonas Jerebko, Detroit Pistons
27 MIN, 16 PTS, 5-9 FG, 6-7 FT, 7 REB, 3 AST, 1 BLK, 1 TO
Jonas has been solid of late and worth considering in deep leagues.
Ben Wallace, Detroit Pistons
33 MIN, 11 PTS, 5-8 FG, 1-2 FT, 11 REB, 4 AST, 3 BLK
Wallace continues to turn back the clock.
Courtney Lee, New Jersey Nets
34 MIN, 27 PTS, 11-16 FG, 2-4 FT, 3 3PM, 4 REB, 1 AST, 3 STL, 1 BLK
Lee is averaging 15.0 PPG and 5.0 RPG over his past three games.
Wes Matthews, Utah Jazz
35 MIN, 18 PTS, 7-13 FG, 2-3 FT, 2 3PM, 5 REB, 1 AST, 2 STL, 1 BLK, 1 TO
Matthews had 17 points in his last game. If he keeps it up, he’ll be worth adding.
Quentin Richardson, Miami Heat
38 MIN, 13 PTS, 4-8 FG, 4-4 FT, 1 3PM, 8 REB, 2 AST, 2 STL, 2 TO
Nice game for Q, but he hasn’t found his groove yet after his hot start. His back seems better though, so keep an eye on him.
Week 11 Results: 13-3 (CAR, PIT, CIN let me down) Lock Picks: 2-0
Previous Lock to Win Picks: NO (W), WAS (W), BAL (W), INDY (W), PHI (W), PITT (W), NE (W), SD (W), ATL (W), MINN (W), ARI (W)
Previous Lock to Lose Picks: OAK (W), CIN (L), STL (W), KC (W), DET (W), TB (W), WAS (W), CAR (L), HOU (W), CLE (W), BUF (W)
Regular Season Lock Picks: 20-2 (.909)
Regular Season Total: 113-47 (.706)
Week 12 NFL Picks:
Lock to Win: Dallas Cowboys
Lock to Lose (can’t be same game as Winner Lock): Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers over Detroit Lions
Dallas Cowboys over Oakland Raiders (Winner Lock)
New York Giants over Denver Broncos
Atlanta Falcons over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Miami Dolphins over Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks over St. Louis Rams
Carolina Panthers over New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles over Washington Redskins
Indianapolis Colts over Houston Texans
San Diego Chargers over Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers over Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans over Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings over Chicago Bears (Loser Lock)
Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots over New Orleans Saints
These are heads-up picks. We’re doing picks with the spread on Yahoo. If you want to get in on the action, leave me a message in the comment with your e-mail or send one to me at contact@lesterslegends.com.
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