Move to Boston Red Sox brings John Lackey face to face with Fenway Park demons
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
Wanting to get the Boston Red Sox’ hometown perspective on the John Lackey signing, we went and checked out the Boston Globe this morning to find the headline ‘Lackey has team convinced he’ll succeed at Fenway
.’ We were unaware of Lackey’s previous struggles at Boston’s Fenway Park, but came away from the story a little concerned about his fantasy future.
Lackey is 2-5 with a 5.76 ERA in nine starts at Fenway Park. The Red Sox hit .314 against him in those starts, including 8 homers in 51.2 innings pitched. Sure, it’s a small sample size and Lackey is now pitching for the team that so rudely welcomed him, but we still have a few doubts about the $82.5 million contract he signed to pitch there.
The Globe’s Amalie Benjamin had the following to say:
“Perhaps [the Red Sox' skepticism over signing Lackey] was in reference to the time Lackey was caught talking to himself after giving up a home run, including the line, “They should blow this [expletive] place up.’’’
Welcome home, John!
We don’t believe this is an impossible hill for Lackey to climb, but he could fall victim to the same inconsistencies that plague Boston ace Josh Beckett. Remember, Lackey’s skill set in fantasy is more of a workhorse and a winner than a true dominator.
The righty has a 69-38 record over the last five seasons and, when healthy, is a lock for 200-plus innings. However, Lackey’s ERA (3.49 since ‘05) and Ks per 9 (7.2 over the past 3 seasons) fall considerably short of elite status.
Lackey does have a lot of ‘big game’ in him - a big reason he was so valued in the free agency market - and a move to Boston will give him a few more of those chances.
But, between the Fenway Park factor and Lackey’s natural limitations, we aren’t predicting any significant improvements in his stat line this season. In fact, we think his averages over the past five seasons (3.49 ERA, 14-16 wins, 170 Ks) would be a best-case scenario.
